Thursday, March 30, 2006
C P I Aerostructures (CVU) Q4 results
Revenue was down 28% to $6.5 million.
Gross margin was down to 12% (vs 36%) due to rework costs for a rejected work item in Q1, higher overhead related to the [untimely] move in early 2005, and so forth.
Small net loss
Things are slow right now in the military aircraft business since the aircraft are in the Middle East. CVU has a 13% success rate on bids awarded, which is above the industry average of 5%, but business overall is way down.
They project $25 million in revenue for 2006 and $2 million in net income, the same as 2005. The real point of owning this stock is for the big orders that have already been awarded. These will happen, but not right now.
The balance sheet remains strong, I'm not worried about the business getting into serious trouble.
Conference Call Notes
[I was not very dilligent at keeping up and taking notes here]
Why everyone feels the need to read the results verbatim is beyond me. It makes no sense.
Positive outlook for the future due to increasing relevant expenditures by the government. CVU makes money on aircraft modifications and repair. The quadrennial review was positive for CVU (including the C-5A).
They're trying to get subcontracts from larger players (in other areas) to get some business. This is working somewhat so far. Any single award could have a large positive impact on results. 2006 could be big, but who knows.
$350 million in bids outstanding.
Line of credit outstanding, but expires later in 2006.
CEO is not disappointed in the results.
1) Gross margin decline. Large amount of indirect labor in Q4 on 2 projects. ISO certification. Lots of indirect hours from QA. Defense Management certification stuff to increase ratings... "next level". The effort was necessary anyway. A slowdown is a good time to do this [agreed].
2) Rate of awards decline, supply chain issues. Partners OK? Competitors? Vendors are OK. No subcontracting concentration. Competition is all surviving, but affected. Everyone did very well during the boom times and can survive now.
3) Building sales force for subcontracting, any employee turnover? No. And don't plan to add any employees.
4) SOX? Don't need to comply until year ending Dec 2007.
5) Gross margin question again. The guy doesn't understand how that stuff works. They had to pay people lots of overtime to do the compliance stuff.
6) What sort of backlog exists? $18 million. Something related to the (otherwise huge) TOPS contract Q4 06 to the end of 2007 (if I heard correctly). This part is small potatoes.
7) Probability of success on subcontractor work? Subcontractors have more flexibility in awarding to people they like to work with, can look deeper into the overall production than the US Gov. The US Gov can be fooled by low bids more. Going into a prime or subcontractor, those guys are better at identifying stupidity. More qualitative, which is right into CVU's strength. Anecdote about CVU being one of two left standing after an original 14 bidders. They rattled off a number of contracts and companies that sounded pretty good.
8) When will gross margins get back to normal? Still expect low margins in Q1 and maybe even into Q2 a bit. Also things should get more visibile in Q2. At that time they'll re-assess if needed (to cut back).
9) Expect two possible "projected very strongly" awards for Q2. Can't disclose dollar figure, but we're talking well above $2 million... significant.
10) Big award in 2004 but still nothing yet... why? How much longer can it go on? 100 line item contract with max value of $215 million, not guaranteed. Ongoing war is different than expected. The transport aircraft are being used all the time, without off-time. Quadrennial review stated that airlift mobility was a prime concern (good for CVU and the contract). The US fleet of airlift aircraft need maintenance and to be increased. Immediately afterward, they got a $5 million award (unrelated). More releases are hard to predict. Sooner or later the airplanes need the work and it's a clear 4-year priority. [that's good stuff]
11) Dollar range for a really huge contract? How long till that shows up? $2-$5 million would be "large". They talked more about it, but I missed it.
12) Warner Robins and others are fairly busy. Why not CVU? They're not as busy as they were. The other upgrades of the C-5A (avionics, etc.) are higher priority than what CVU has been awarded. There are other contracts coming out, it shows commitment to the aircraft is still there: they won't upgrade the engine and allow the structure to rot away. Problem is, they can't afford to take planes out for all the work needed, with a war going on.
13) Any retired aircraft being used for spare parts? Only retired 14 out of 126(?), not a lot of spare parts to use. Only so much cannibalism is possible (a wingtip or something else), but the planes are getting old. Before the war, they would have done the order. Now things are more immediate, urgent.
14) missed this one (inventory-ing parts). Government is not good at ordering in advance. RFPs and RFQs are going out, but just sitting there, no award or rejection.
15) $25 million projection, what's included (C-5 TOPS)? Yes (see above): Q4 until the end of 07.
16) How did they come up with the projection? How much is subcontract? Difficult to answer. They know the backlog. Based on RFPs, expected win rate, historical win rate. They know what should be coming later in the year. Doesn't include any significant major awards. They have huge potential $350 million bids outstanding (up $100 million from last quarter). If the logjam breaks, then revenues go way up [which is what I'm waiting on]. Things started to pick up, but then slowed down. They're not projecting any of that stuff for 2006.
If something positive doesn't happen in the near future, they need to start looking at reducing the overhead and cutting back. [my sense is that they'll stall for time if nothing pans out sson, as I believe they can go on for a while without serious consequences]
17) Can you take on low margin business in the meantime? No, you'd have to go after such extremely low margin stuff that it would be unprofitable. [in my opinion, they're doing exactly the right stuff]
18) Any more coverage of the business from the investment community? Nothing formalized. They'll be talking to people in various areas (Boston, SF, Florida) that have been with the company for a while.
19) Silliness. Management answered it very well. Funny stuff.
Monday, March 27, 2006
Revisiting companies 11
DRUG (sec) Dragon Pharma (fast ramping capital intensive chemical and legacy pharm with some new capital intensive biotech revenues). Revenues increasing rapidly, but lost money in Q3, though very near break-even. Huge PP&E mostly plant and equipment (with very large depreciation and even larger capex, but not sure how much is new investment). Somewhat weak balance sheet. 1/3 equity. Weirdness with gross margins dropping from prior year. Free cash flow is $1.4 million. 63 million shares with 6.7 million options for about 70 million fully diluted shares.
My very rough guess is that they'll eventually earn about 9 cents per share with real free cash flow of perhaps 7 cents per share, making the stock worth about $1.00 (I know, this contradicts the 30 cents I mentioned here). The ask is at 65 cents. I don't consider it cheap enough, given all the uncertainty.
They sold their Devel & Mfg Agreement with Polymun Sci Immun GmBh to a Swiss company for US$1 million. This was to develop a future new cell line for the Euro market. The EU threw up roadblocks and DRUG now has other areas to work on, so this sale makes sense (including based on ROI considerations). But it was sold to a related party!
SMID (sec) Smith-Midland pre-cast concrete used in construction, utilities, and farming. An investment advisor bought 14% of the stock. Stock is probably worth about $4.60.
SOTK (sec) Sono-Tek ultra-sonic spray nozzles. The primary market of printed circuit boards has been in decline. They're going after new markets: medical devices, nanotech drying systems, float glass. Down slightly to $1.55.
March 6, 2006 announcement: patented new generation of nozzles to generate smaller drops (5-10 microns for the three new market areas. It also allows for greater flow rates for glass coatings, textiles, and who knows what else.
Q4 un-audited results are also in the announcement: revenues up 15%. Earnings up 30%. This continues as 30% un-compounded annual growth rate since 2003. New partnerships (joining with Specialty Coating Systems). They're looking for 20% growth going forward (which probably means something like 10% over 2005). Why try to deceive investors like that? It'll only backfire. Maybe the stock is worth 80 cents?
GDVI (sec) Modular buildings for schools, typically in California. They acquired new designed from apparently a competitor (Aurora) who went bankrupt. The new designed brought an increase in business over the prior year.
Q3 results: AR and inventories increased by about 15% of revenues. Assets are AR, inventories, PP&E, and engineering/architect intangible plans that have been capitalized. Fairly strong balance sheet.
Q3 revenues down (9 month revenues way up). Gross margin down to 31% (from 41%) due to the timing of types of revenue (lower margin field construction vs higher margin manufacturing). 3-month SG&A is half of prior year due to reduction in manufacturing (the 9-month SG&A increased). Three month $95K earnings on 158 million diluted shares.
Seriously negative cash flow from ops (prior year as well). Capex both years above depreciation (but this year was due to acquiring the Aurora designs). They borrowed money both years. Interest-only loan to a shareholder at 10% interest! A noteholder holding $400K of GDVI debt was given effectively 27 million shares (via convertible pfd), which means management values the company at only 1.5 cents per share. It never sold below 5 cents (or even close to it) in the last few years. Also, a $34K loan is secured with 3.2 million shares in escrow: around 1 cent per share). These guys get no respect. However, they did get nearly 10 cents per share for (inflated?) consulting fees.
A rough guess says the business is worth 3 cents per share, but I don't like what I see in the report. This seems like a crappy business that doesn't generate much cash. Keep following for now, but consider dropping it.
LVLT (sec) I had expected LVLT to disappoint shareholders a lot more, but they acquired WilTel (paying essentially $600 million for a regular $150 million per year in cash flow) and others that were pretty good. And they've continued the financial tap dancing that they're so good at.
The 10-K is out, but the key thing is their Q4 results: The long awaited end to the constant communications services revenue drop is still not here. After backing out the WilTel contribution, CSR is down to $337 million from $344 million. It's close, but still dropping. They're projecting an increase in Q1 2006. Boy, have I heard that story before. And LVLT is hilarious at inventing new metrics in their intense effort to finally show some sort of positive number.
In all likelihood, they will severely disappoint investors in the future. When that happens, I might be there to buy shares at some low enough price.
AORGB (website) Church organs, data communications equipment, and electronic assemblies. Went dark. I sent them a request for investor info.
ARKN (sec) Arkona, develops and licenses management software for auto dealerships.
Last time I checked, everything was all screwed up and needed to be re-stated due to inadequate documentation about how inter-quarter allocation decisions are made. The day after I checked, they published their Q3 10-Q for Dec 31, 2005.
AR is way up. Revenues are up somewhat. Gross margins are 46% (vs 49% in prior year Q3). SG&A increased significantly. So did R&D. Operating income is down. No taxes (prior year was a tax benefit). Diluted earnings per share of $0.003 for Q3. Free cash flow is zero due to AR and software development costs (which were capitalized). They borrowed some cash and issued a small amount of stock for cash. NOLs of $14 million.
If everything is on the up-and-up, the stock might be worth 11 cents. It's selling for 65 cents.
AMNF (website, old sec) Pasta sauce and other prepared foods for the foodsevice industry and processed food manufacturers.
On March 1, 2006, they issued a press release (details) for Q4 and the year ending Dec 31, 2005. Q4 sales up 20% over prior year to $4.15 million. Net income was $244K. Unfortunately, they don't provide any balance sheet or cash flow information. They claim there are 18 million weighted ave shares outstanding.
ARTNB (sec) Water utility company in Delaware, Artesian Resources Corp. Apparently heavily regulated business.
2005 results: Revenues up 14.4% to $45.3 million. Net income was $5.0 million. 100 years in business. Favorable rainfall and weather conditions in 2005. 10 wastewater treatment projects. Water users up 1.9%. Expenses up 18.6% due to new projects, increased staff, SOX, higher energy costs. $20 million invested in new plant (bad).
Full year: gross margins 23.5%. Interest expense is 13% of revenues, could be trouble in the event of rapidly rising rates. Net margin 11%, not too shabby. $1.22 income per diluted share.
Assets are almost entirely utility plant. 24% equity. 38% long term debt.
Shares have been trading at around $31. They've been as low as $24 in late 2004, $18 in early 2003.
USTG (website, old sec) Web hosting and internet services, specialized applications for municipalities.
No new financial info since they went dark. They only have the 2004 annual report and a broken link for press releases. Try again later.
SUWN (sec, website) They're really pushing the stock.
Q3 Results: Period ending Jan 31, 2006. 64 million shares on March 6, 2006 with 2.8 million warrants outstanding (all options were exercised, not surprising). Cash continued to increase from $2.4 million in Q2 to $3.6 million. AR jumped from $1.8 million to $2.4 million and allowance for doubtful accounts decreased from $986K to $232K. Inventories are up a bit. PP&E jumped to $5.8 million from $3.6 million. They loaned $1.1 million to a related party (I seem to recall it was ok here). Current liabilities are remarkably similar to Q2, which is worth noting given the large changes on the asset side of things (e.g. did AP jump along with AR?).
Revenues are actually down from Q2. Gross margin is 32%, down from 33%. A huge bad debt recovery of $619K boosted operating income to $1.14 million. Without the bad debt recovery, operating income would be $521K, down from $528K in Q2. They have a small benefit from taxes.
Cash flow from operations matches up pretty well with earnings even backing out depreciation. Capex was slightly less than total earnings, so they're plowing everything back into the business... not surprising.
Financing produced over $2 million in proceeds from stock options and warrants. Wow, that's a hell of a lot.
Right now, I'd assume about 70 million totally diluted shares when all is said and done in the future. I'd expect them to have about $2 million in earnings per year going forward if nothing changes. With the additional investment being made, perhaps that might be as high as $3 million or $4 million, I don't know. If it's $4 million, that works out to 5.7 cents per totally diluted share. With a P/E of 15 that becomes 85 cents. The stock is well over a dollar right now and to be honest, this whole thing gives me a serious case of the heebeegeebees. I'll keep following it just to see what happens.
Saturday, March 25, 2006
Eternal Technologies (ETLT) Sept 05, 2005 10-Q/A
Comparing the 10-Q to the 10-Q/A, the diff output is here.
They're Unaudited Consolidated Condensed Statements of Operations. Ya got that?
It would make sense to add "the" to a sentence because the Chinese language doesn't have such a thing and thus Chinese speakers tend to forget to add it. But to remove "the" is odd:
- Notes to the Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements 7But here's where it starts to get interesting:
+ Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements 7
- Total current assets 33,685,080 29,633,578Two dollars disappeared from the current assets. In reality, the original filing was incorrect. The error did not propagate through the numbers, so it was a typo and not a math error.
+ Total current assets 33,685,080 29,633,576
They used a minus sign instead of parentheses:
- Subscription receivable -10,176 (10,176)And another error in the numbers:
+ Subscription receivable (10,176) (10,176)
- Total liabilities and stockholders' equity $ 45,476,025 $ 40,482,265Since it's the last number in the list, we don't know if it was a typo or a math error. It would be very easy to see that it was wrong since it's the sum of two numbers, both of which are odd (odd + odd = even).
- ================== ==================
+ Total liabilities and stockholders' equity $ 45,476,026 $ 40,482,265
+ ============== ==================
Here we have another number error of 1 dollar:
-SALES $ 5,026,968 $ 9,074,651 $ 17,292,310 $ 15,215,483Two more errors, worse this time:
+SALES $ 5,026,968 $ 9,074,651 $ 17,292,310 $ 15,215,482
WEIGHTED AVERAGE NUMBER OFAnd they added an "Other" category for cash flows from operations:
COMMON SHARES OUTSTANDING
-Basic and diluted 30,733,058 29,337,381 30,696,630 29,362,380
+Basic and diluted 30,733,058 29,387,380 30,696,630 29,370,774
+ Other - 27,200...which increased the cash flow from operations for the first 9 months of 2004 by that much.
And this is a large error:
At September 30, 2005, the Company maintains bank accounts in the PRC ofHowever, this is a cut-and-paste error. The amount matches exactly the same item in Q2 shown here.
-approximately $21,329,840, and substantially the entire amount is to be
+approximately $24,115,753, and substantially the entire amount is to be
exclusively used for operations in the PRC.
More number changes in the discussion, but these don't seem to be cut-and-paste errors:
Selling and administrative expenses decreased by $120,216 or 28.9% to $294,917and here
from $415,133 for the corresponding period of the prior year. This decrease
-resulted from a decrease in penalty expense of $93,878 and a decrease in
-management expenses of $23,329 which was offset by small decreases in other
+resulted from a decrease in penalty expense of $68,673 and a decrease in
+management expenses of $22,371 which was offset by small decreases in other
Cost of sales for the nine months ended September 30, 2005 increased byand here
-$2,862,070 or 29.5% to $12,576,696 from $9,714,594 for the corresponding period
+$2,862,102 or 29.5% to $12,576,696 from $9,714,594 for the corresponding period
of the prior year. This increase resulted from an increase in the costs of
As of September 30, 2005, the Company had cash and cash equivalents ofand this next change is due to the addition of $27,200 "Other" cash flow from operations.
-$24,164,917 and working capital of $30,948,076. This compares with cash and cash
-equivalents of $27,473,354 and working capital of $27,436,168 as of December 31,
+$24,164,917 and working capital of $30,986,115. This compares with cash and cash
+equivalents of $27,473,354 and working capital of $27,391,150 as of December 31,
September 30, 2005. This compares with cash provided from operating activitiesand here they had the wrong amount for cash used in investing in the liquidity discussion. I can't figure out where that number came from.
-of $1,289,673 for the corresponding period of the prior year. This decrease
+of $1,316,873 for the corresponding period of the prior year. This decrease
resulted from a decrease in net income of $737,376 and non-cash expenses of
-Cash used in investing activities totaled $1,272,108 during the nine monthsand here (cut-and-paste error)
+Cash used in investing activities totaled $1,516,830 during the nine months
-Although the Company has a cash and bank balance of $21,329,840, it has all beenI'll bet the auditors from Thomas Leger are having so much fun with this stuff. Probably lots of forehead-smacking going on.
+Although the Company has a cash and bank balance of $24,115,753, it has all been
This is a common problem with Chinese reverse mergers that I've looked at. In my opinion there are some things you really want to watch out for: anything that results in a significant change in the amount of cash held by the company, a change in earnings, or a significant change in the number of shares. ETLT did have a very small change in the weighted average share count for 2004.
CXTI Sept 05, 2005 10-Q/A
This is the worst sort of nuisance filing. It contains a huge number of formatting changes, grammatical corrections, and such. There's only one significant change that I found, and even that change wasn't anything too important: they included a subsequent event that we already know about.
Conclusion: So these people are apparently newbies at doing SEC filings. I've seen this many times before with other Chinese reverse mergers. I suppose you could argue that if the SEC filings had been done flawlessly, that would be a red flag. I consider this a non-issue.
Friday, March 24, 2006
I looked at HQSM back in October 05 here and here and here.
Admittedly, I didn't look at the actual 10-Q they issued in November here.
I liked a lot of what I saw in the company and I might have been willing to invest back in July at around 15 cents. But there were a lot of red flags and issues:
No provision for doubtful accounts (they had a provision for a related party but not external customers).
Low margin business (the profits mostly come from the Jiahua and not the fish business).
Things in the cash flow statement seemed to be in the wrong categories (acquisition of PP&E was outside of the capex category).
Proceeds from a $100K prommisory note was listed in cash flow from operations rather than cash flow from finance?
Finance produced around $21 million from proceeds from common stock, but it was wiped out [immediately?] by a writedown of goodwill of slightly more.
Provision for doubtful accounts decreased by exactly $2,535,047 in both 2004 AND 2003, if I recall correctly.
I've looked at a lot of Chinese reverse merger companies and I admit that they very often have trouble with accounting, sometimes far worse than what I've listed above. Much of what I saw in HQSM wasn't any different from what I've seen elsewhere. The thing that killed it for me was the number of issues. Like I said, I liked a lot of things about the company and what vaunted12 says matches up with what I interpreted in the statements.
But one problem I had was that based on performance here-and-now (or what I saw in October) the company was worth about 50 cents (if things were to stay about the same). Now I admit that it's very likely they'll grow quite a bit and the value will increase. But I prefer results now over probable results in the future.
Looking right now at the Sept 30 10-Q, I see that Accounts Receivable went up substantially over June. Operations ate up a huge amount of cash due to the increase in AR.
Tuesday, March 21, 2006
China Expert Technology, Inc.
Google Finance rocks
BGII's unaudited full year report
BGII released their unaudited financial results for 2005 on the pink sheets and on their website. I'm not going to go through them in detail because I can see weaknesses that make BGII less compelling than my current investments: mainly the legal issues with their "sweepstakes" machines being a bit too much like gambling machines. That's a thin line which many businesses have been walking for decades. This one seems a bit too far over the line and they've had their machines confiscated in the past (2002?). The issue is covered briefly in Note 5.
14.6 million shares on Dec 31, 2005. 2 million options outstanding and 1.2 million granted in 2005. Assume 20 million totally diluted shares to be safe.
Balance sheet is rock solid and improving. Cash increased from $588K to $1.8 million. Current assets increased from $778K to $2.4 million. Current ratio is well over 4. Total liabilities are only $415K. Net cash is about $1.4 million or 7 cents per totally diluted share.
Revenue doubled in 2005 to $4.9 million. Gross margin is nearly 80%. Fairly normal level of tax. Net margin is over 27%. Earnings are 6.7 cents per totally diluted share.
Cash flows are simple (all three categories) and match earnings fairly closely. Free cash flow is slightly higher than earnings.
Scanning the notes and other stuff:
Allowance for doubtful accounts is zero dollars (was $3K in 2004).
PP&E is mostly furniture and very heavily depreciated.
Operating lease obligations are low.
They bought an equity interest in Bright Serve, LLC for $249K. Provides contractor programs to property insurance companies to control cost and improve customer service.
I figure the stock is worth about $1.20 but would need to be discounted for the probability of legal trouble in the future (and that could be large and probable) and there's the big issue of unaudited results. The stock last sold for 62 cents. I'll pass, especially since my current investments are pretty compelling at this point.
Saturday, March 18, 2006
I'm currently fully invested and I intend to follow my investments closely, but searching for investments just isn't a high priority right now. I'm revisiting stuff again, but not keeping notes (admitedly a huge mistake that I'll need to fix). I'll probably post some notes before too long on revisiting companies. I expect to cover all of them at once, in order to keep it simple.
the crime of converting to Christianity 16 years ago.
Well, like the judge said, it's "an attack on Islam."
Monday, March 13, 2006
This matches what I've read elsewhere and seen within operations.
But the most important thing is about how China is dealing with all of this.
Having enlisted foreign investment to transform China into a manufacturing powerhouse over the past few decades, Beijing now is mounting a campaign to strengthen domestic innovation that could help push the country into more advanced niches of the global economy. In his annual report at the National People's Congress in Beijing, which ends tomorrow, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the central government will increase spending on science and technology by nearly 20% this year....A big obstacle is the weak intellectual property protection within the country. And the US currently spends 2.7% of GDP on R&D, but we all know about 90% of that is total multicultural irrational crap and not real science or engineering (or even useful entertainment to keep scientists and engineers happy and motivated).
China's State Council, or cabinet, recently said the country would seek to boost R&D investment to 2% of gross domestic product in 2010 and 2.5% by 2020 [vs 1.3% today]. At a news conference Friday, senior officials outlined tax breaks and other tools they plan to use to meet that target. Last year, total R&D spending in China -- not including foreign investment -- reached $29.4 billion, rising steadily from $11.13 billion in 2000, according to the government.
China offers students studying abroad incentives including generous research grants and R&D projects if they return to China. WSJ mentions one guy who left the University of Houston to return to Beijing to do research in 1995. Today he's the director of the Institute of Physics at an academy there. Talented returnees can build up their own research lab and do research in one area for 10 years. He said it's hard to find such conditions in the US [in my opinion, the US educational system and university system is totally broken].
What all this means is that the incentives offered to ETLT are probably quite solid. And it also means CXTI probably won't have trouble due to a lack of available work. And it says good things about many of the other Chinese reverse mergers I looked at (with the exception of stuff like Chinese Entertainment that I looked at yesterday).
Sunday, March 12, 2006
China Entertainment Group (CGRP)
In addition to artist management fees, as a result of managing nearly every major film and television celebrity in southern China [Hong Kong], the Company has recently leveraged its talent under contract to penetrate the lucrative casino gaming industry's marketing and promotional business throughout Southern China and Macau. Casino marketing, promotional and junket services are performed by independently operated Asian companies.[Sure, these guys are successful now, but just wait until some gifted yet exploited martial arts expert within their lower ranks breaks into the compound and systematically defeats all of their guards and then gets the beautiful daughter of the CEO to turn against the business. When the Dragon enters, the shareholders are screwed.]
Jan 13, 2006: CGRP files its 10-K statement for the period ending Dec 31, 2004 nearly a year late. That 10-K shows a weak balance sheet, (all US dollars) $2.6 million in revenues and $1.1 million in net earnings. They claim that basic and diluted earnings per share are 90 cents, but the basic and diluted share count is 129 million shares. Try 9 cents!!
They paid exactly $1,410,256 in, um, non-cash dividends.
Cash flow from ops is slightly higher than earnings due to mild changes in assets and liabilities. Capex is $391. Cash flow from financing shows $1,462,136 in related party payments. The money comes in the front door and goes out the back door.
But like I said, this 10-K is almost a year late.
On March 1, 2005, they issued this 10-Q for the 3rd quarter ending Nov 30, 2004, one month before the year ended in the 10-K shown above. Neither of these are transitional reports. So their fourth quarter lasts one month?
Perhaps the screw ups and failure to file any sort of financial statements for 2005 is because some sort of Jackie Chan or Bruce Lee type person is already battling senior management in various warehouses and shipping docks in Hong Kong.
Meanwhile, the stock is selling for 3 cents on the pink sheets. I think I'll pass.
don't follow (except for entertainment value)
Saturday, March 11, 2006
Coca Cola Amatil Ltd (CCLAY)
This company goes back to 1904 as the British Tobacco Company (Australia) Ltd., went public in 1927. They bought controlling interest in Coca-Cola Bottlers (Perth) Pty Ltd in 1964. Changed their name to Amatil Ltd in 1977. Acquired Coca-Cola bottling franchises in Austria in 1982 and continued buying bottler territories in Fiji and NZ in 1988. They dumped the tobacco business in 1989 and KO became a major shareholder. They continued expansion in 1991, dumped some snack businesses in 1992. They acquired the Philippines operations in 1997. In 1998 they dumped the Eastern Europe business and expanded into South Korea. In 2001, they dumped the Philippines operations. In 2002, they acquired Rio Beverages in NZ and Pacific Beverages in AU. In 2003, they acquired Neverfail Springwater Ltd. in AU. They also acquired Peats Ridge Springs (bulk water supplier). In 2004, they acquired Quirk's Refrigeration (commercial refrigerators), Crusta Fruit Juices Pty Ltd, Quenchy Crusta Sales, and they opened a materials handling facility in AU. In 2005, the acquired the assets of Grinders Coffee, they acquired SPC Ardmona (packaged fruit, vegetables, jams, sauces), and some sales, disti, and production assets from Parmalat Australia.
In other words, they're serial acquirers.
The company now covers Australia, NZ, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, and South Korea. Incorporated in Australia. Their 2004 annual report seems good despite also being slick and conspicously including photos of hot babes (and here) presumably from Down Under (UPDATE: more likely Fiji, since people have been searching for "Fiji + Coca Cola + babes" and stuff like that... so I upgraded the photos since people seem to care so much). They have some derivatives. They own controlling interest in a large number of bottlers, mostly in Australia. 707 million shares. Options declined from 31 million at the end of 2002 to 14 million at the end of 2004. The 2005 report is due out in April.
Their balance sheet is fair. The current ratio is 1.0. More than half the assets are unconsolidated investments in bottlers' agreements. About half equity. PP&E is AU$1.2 billion, net.
Revenues have been increasing slightly over the years. Earnings have been all over the map, but seem to average around 30 AUS cents. Operating margins are around 14% (up from 13% in prior year). Revenues are about AU$3.6 billion.
Free cash flow is very weak for the past 2 years. They received AU$3.5 billion from customers and paid AU$2.9 billion to suppliers and employees and had a net AU$380 million cash from operations (vs earnings of AU$280 million). So far, so good. But capex was AU$210 million (was AU$185 million in 2003). They borrowed a net AU$263 million and paid AU$170 million in dividends. There was an overall net increase in cash of AU$316 million.
Earnings are about US$0.59 per ADR (which consists of 2 shares). I'd say they're probably worth somewhere between US$6.00 and US$16.00, probably closer to US$6.00. Currently selling for US$10.30 per ADR.
UPDATE: It's funny how many people click on the "hot babes" link above.
Wednesday, March 08, 2006
Uranium spot price jumps up a dollar
The news is more of the same:
TVA considers building reactors in Jackson County, Northern Alabama. The New York Times notes that there's lots of talk and little action in terms of a "nuclear renaissance".
Of course there's the US-India agreements on nuclear power.
And there's Russia's plans to build 2 reactors per year.
UPDATE March 14, 2006 (a week later):
The spot price is now up another 50 cents to $40.00.
In the news, two new reactors to be built in Karachi, Pakistan... the US-India nuclear deal could be worth $100 billion... The US Dept of Energy is offering to sell up to 200 metric tons of natural uranium hexaflouride... last ninute changes made EU energy paper more pro-nuclear... but another source claims they will be neutral on nuclear power.
Saturday, March 04, 2006
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, BRKB) annual report
I'm reading the report and will flag anything that might change my valuation, but I think it's safe to say that Berkshire is well run and that their financial statements reflect what's going on within the business. So all I'm going to do is a quick valuation estimate.
Earnings per share for 2005: $5,538
Excess cash on balance sheet: $13,000 (about $20 billion total)
Look-through earnings of relevant securities: $2,441
Let's estimate that the excess cash earned 2%, or $260 per share. We need to back this out of the look-through earnings because we're counting the excess cash separately.
Net look-through earnings of relevant securities: $2181
Now we have a problem that we're counting $3,719 per share of investment gains. I'm going to remove this entirely from my valuation since I'm already counting look-through earnings from stock held and excess cash. I believe this makes sense because I'm counting the value of stock held and the value of cash after selling the stock and I'm not assuming that Berkshire can sell stock at more than 15 times earnings, which is the market's historic value.
Earnings per share now becomes $1,819.
Ok, so let's add the $1,819 net earnings to the $2,181 look-through earnings for a total of exactly $4,000 in earnings. If we slap a P/E of 15 onto that, we end up with a value of $60,000. Next we add in the $13,000 of excess cash for a valuation of $73,000. This is based on a year with 3 monster hurricanes with a net cost of $3.4 billion. Show me a company where you can hit them with a world's record disaster like that on their primary business and then do a valuation based entirely on that one year and end up with something that's still pretty good.
I say that for a fair valuation, we should subtract at least half of that $3.4 billion back out. We'll assume an average of "only" 1.5 monster hurricanes. This adds $1,104 per share of earnings. If we assume a P/E of 15, that adds $16,560 to the valuation estimate for a resulting valuation of $89,560 which is pretty much what it's selling for now.
UPDATE same day: After finishing the annual report (or most of it, to be honest), I'll raise my valuation to $115,000.
Mike Price, 15 year old investor
Price looks at K-Swiss here. My only advice would be to never stop learning, never stop evaluating your own performance and looking for improvement. As Buffett says, investing is a cumulative knowledge. You get better the more you do it. The most logical way to become a better investor is to start younger. But investing is more than picking stocks. It's also where to focus your efforts, what to spend time doing.
When I was 15, my efforts were focused on being a skilled foosball player, guitar player, and motorcycle rider. These skills are worthless to me now, but the methods I used to gain the skills were valuable. All of them involved a sort of cooperative competition where a significant number of kids all attempted to improve their skills in a loosely organized, chaotic, unpredictable group. When someone accomplished something significant, others would study it and learn the technique. Sometimes people would enter the group, having come from somewhere far far away and brought with them valuable techniques we had never seen before. They would soon be mastered by all the serious participants. There were always complex group dynamics involving cooperation, competition, social interaction, and a drive among many people for achievement. It was the development of a technology.
This exact same process is how Western Civilization became so successful. Many different technologies were developed over long time periods by groups of people both cooperating and competing. Each person starts out as a know-nothing apprentice. With time and effort, they can master the art and possibly even contribute to its forward progress. The smaller the field, the more possible this becomes. I think one of the main benefits of the Internet is that it will make it far easier to for these groups to form and to improve on the state of so many of the arts and carry our civilization forward. I wonder if the rapid progress of the Renaissance was largely due to the printing press? If so, imagine what the future holds for someone like young Mike Price? Consider that the world's middle class is likely to increase by unimaginable amounts as India and China become more productive. The amount of wealth increases greatly as the amount of economic activity increases.
So welcome to the group, Mike. Investing is an old and honorable group that has done great things for humanity. This is especially apparent when one looks at the horrible consequences of small groups that attempted to hijack civilization in the name of designing it better themselves in the absence of market forces and open competition of ideas: the Soviets, the Fascists, Maoist China, the Khmer Rouge, and now the radical Islamists. They kill tens of millions, they make the vast majority worse off, and they also stop the progress of civilization. I say all this because there have been many people in the last hundred or so years that have attempted to conquer and control civilization and remove the unpredictable, uncontrolled, chaotic market forces which got us to where we are. It took the hard work of many, many generations to bring us the technology we have. There are people who would surrender all this because they feel bad about being successful while many people are not and people who would steal or destroy all this for the opposite reason. It is imperative that they not succeed.
UPDATE: In the age contest, it appears that Kevin from MarketMoney is 8 months younger than Mike Price.
Friday, March 03, 2006
Index of Posts
Some posts have links to collections of links (such as ETLT, EPLN, CXTI, LVWD, Strathmore) where it's a two-step process to see the post you want.
August 2007 posts
8/03/2007 China Expert Technologies (CXTI) conference call
8/02/2007 China Expert Technologies (CXTI) Q1
8/01/2007 China Expert Technologies (CXTI) 2006 10-K
July 2007 posts
7/26/2007 Sold BakBone Software (BKBO)
7/26/2007 Strathmore Minerals (STM.V, STHJF) new joint venture
7/20/2007 China Expert Technology (CXTI) CFO resigns
7/14/2007 yet another post about uranium
7/08/2007 Ajay Sports (AJAY)
7/07/2007 Aida Pharmaceuticals (AIDA)
7/01/2007 American HomePatient (AHOM)
June 2007 posts
6/26/2007 Conforce International (CFRI) new field trial
6/16/2007 Amerex Group (AEXG)
6/09/2007 AFP Imaging Corp (AFPC)
6/02/2007 Uranium update
May 2007 posts
5/31/2007 The Empirical Commute
5/29/2007 American Skiing Company (AESK)
5/28/2007 Asia Electrical Power International (AEPW)
5/28/2007 Price Checks
5/27/2007 Advanced Materials Group (ADMG) quick check
5/26/2007 Two Years of Blogging
5/26/2007 Zhongin Inc (ZHNP)
5/23/2007 American Bank Note Holographics (ABHH)
5/22/2007 Conforce (CFRI) "interview"
5/19/2007 China Education Alliance (CEDA) Q1 Results
5/13/2007 Optionable (OPBL)
5/11/2007 more thoughts on uranium prices
5/10/2007 Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT)
5/06/2007 uranium continues climbing to $120
5/04/2007 Berkshire Hathaway Q1
5/01/2007 Across America Real Estate (AARD)
April 2007 posts
4/28/2007 Conforce International (CFRI) conference call
4/28/2007 from an email I sent about investing
4/24/2007 BakBone Software (BKBO) deal with Sun
4/19/2007 Avantair (AACQ)
4/18/2007 uranium futures
4/16/2007 Alliance Atlantis Communications (AACB)
4/12/2007 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) 10-K
4/10/2007 China Education Alliance (CEDA) 10-K... with huge expenses
4/07/2007 Stop and Think
4/07/2007 uranium jumps to $113 a pound
4/01/2007 uranium observation
March 2007 posts
3/31/2007 Conforce International (CFRI) conference call questions
3/30/2007 CXTI partial results
3/29/2007 CPI Aerostructures (CVU) Q4 results
3/25/2007 uranium spot price 95 dollars
3/22/2007 Conforce International (CFRI) aims for the bleachers
3/21/2007 Table Trac (TBTC) revisited
3/21/2007 Misc Thoughts (EPLN, ETLT, YHGG, LVWD, NICK, uranium)
3/17/2007 Yet Another Uranium Post
3/17/2007 Washington Gas Light Company (WGL, WGLCN, WGLCO, WGLCP)
3/16/2007 DAC Technologies (DAAT) 06 Results
3/15/2007 Conforce International (CFRI) looking at financial...
3/14/2007 poor quality Strathmore valuation (STM.V, STHJF)
3/12/2007 Ranger Mine Flood Update
3/11/2007 JSDA and BABB
3/10/2007 Bakbone Software (BKBO) firings
3/7/2007 Another major uranium mine flood
3/5/2007 Conforce International (CFRI) collected entries
3/5/2007 Google Ban
3/5/2007 Conforce (CFRI) rolls out EKO-FLOR trial order
3/4/2007 CHVC, CHWG, CPHI, CPNE
3/1/2007 Cigar Lake update
February 2007 posts
2/25/2007 What is Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) worth... accor...
2/21/2007 Uranium spot price hits $85
2/18/2007 Wisc Elect pfd, Westfield Group (WFGPY), Winner Medical (WMDG)
2/17/2007 WBRBY, WCSTF, WEBC
2/15/2007 Points of Inflection
2/14/2007 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) exclusive negotiation
2/13/2007 Re-examining BakBone Software (BKBO)
2/12/2007 Nothing New
2/08/2007 BakBone Software (BKBO) update
2/08/2007 China Natural Gas (CHNG)
2/06/2007 New uranium website
2/06/2007 Conforce International (CFRI) new VP
January 2007 posts
1/31/2007 Strathmore plans to spin off Canadian properties
1/30/2007 Strathmore (STM.V STHJF) starts to monetize properties
1/29/2007 China Housing & Land (CHLN)
1/25/2007 Epolin (EPLN) Q3 results, sold the stock
1/25/2007 OTCQX developments
1/21/2007 China-Biotics (CHBT)
1/18/2007 CCOMP, CHBP, CHCG
1/14/2007 Big Apple Bagels (BABB) revisited
1/14/2007 Uranium chatter
1/08/2007 China Education Alliance (CEDA) press releases
1/05/2007 Conforce International (CFRI)
1/04/2007 Teltronics (TELT)
1/01/2007 January 1, 2007
CXTI, CVU, BKBO, EPLN, CEDA, STHJF
December 2006 posts
12/29/2006 Bonus America (now AAGH)
12/29/2006 Seventy-Four Percent
12/24/2006 Some C companies
CAFE, CAUI, CAXG, CBFE
12/22/2006 Q. P. Corporation (QPCPY)
12/22/2006 some thoughts
12/22/2006 Pink Sheets continues doing good stuff
12/21/2006 Bakbone Software (BKBO) deal with Sun
12/20/2006 China Expert Technologies (CXTI) yet another two big wins
12/18/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) contract
12/17/2006 going back into search mode
12/16/2006 uranium feeding frenzy spotted
12/16/2006 Looking at New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU)
12/14/2006 China Expert Technologies (CXTI) two more big wins
12/14/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) Sold it all
12/12/2006 US Government uranium
12/11/2006 China Education Alliance (CEDA) combined links
12/11/2006 China Education Alliance (CEDA) other SEC documents
12/11/2006 eFang Auditors
12/11/2006 China Education Alliance (CEDA) English website
12/11/2006 China Education Alliance (CEDA) 2006 Q3
12/11/2006 China Education Alliance (CEDA) 2005 10-K
12/09/2006 Thoughts on Eternal Technologies (ETLT)
12/05/2006 Wall Street Journal uranium article
12/04/2006 China Expert Technologies (CXTI) wins another one
November 2006 posts
11/28/2006 Misc Update
ETLT, CXTI, BKBO
11/20/2006 Strathmore Minerals (STM.V, STHJF) wants a mill and other U news
11/19/2006 HQ Sustainable Maritime Industries (HQSM) Quick Update
11/16/2006 Shades of Pink
11/15/2006 The market goes wild
CXTI, ETLT, STHJF
11/15/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) files Q3 report on time!
11/14/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) Q3 and new contract
11/12/2006 Results 3
CBBT, CAPS, QBID, CCCI, MANS
11/06/2006 Chinese Real Estate Law
11/02/2006 Strathmore (STM.V, STHJF) stakes another claim
11/02/2006 China Expert Technologies (CXTI) makes agreement with debenture
11/02/2006 Epolin (EPLN)
October 2006 posts
10/30/2006 Strathmore Minerals (STM.V, STHJF) jumps over 20%
10/25/2006 Cigar Lake Mine Flood (STM.V, STHJF)
10/21/2006 Results 2
ADY, BABB, BACL, CACC
10/18/2006 Valuation stuff
10/17/2006 Eternal Technologies' (ETLT) primary business shrinking
10/16/2006 Epolin Inc. (EPLN) Q2 Results
10/14/2006 Hydromer Inc (HYDI)
10/13/2006 Results 1
BFTC, BKBO, LVWD, LCLG, BRSI, BSPA, BSOG, BOJF, BAYN
10/11/2006 Misc Notes
ETLT, NICK, JSDA, IBTGF
10/04/2006 CPI Aerostructures (CVU) is on a roll
10/03/2006 uranium spot price up again
10/01/2006 Dragon Pharma (DRUG), Smith-Midland (SMID), Sono-Tek (SOTK)
10/01/2006 Flamemaster (FAME)
September 2006 posts
9/30/2006 Procyon Corp (PCYN)
9/27/2006 uranium spot price up another 75 cents
9/27/2006 CPI Aerostructures (CVU) wins more business
9/20/2006 yet another huge uranium price increase
9/17/2006 BGII update
9/14/2006 CPI Aerostructures (CVU) snags another win
9/11/2006 CPI Aerostructures (CVU) gets some business
9/10/2006 CXTI trading volume
9/06/2006 Note to ETLT, numbers in parentheses mean negative
9/05/2006 Uranium spot price jumps to $52
9/01/2006 Strathmore Minerals (STM.V, STHJF) Encounters Uranium
9/01/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) auditors haven't skipped town
9/01/2006 Wall St Journal editorial on China
August 2006 Posts
8/29/2006 Uranium jumps another notch
8/28/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) crouching tortoise, hidden mango
8/26/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) The big thing I missed in the 10-Q
8/25/2006 Short Interest
8/22/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) Q2 Results
8/21/2006 Strathmore stakes a claim (STM.V, STHJF)
8/14/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) Q2 results
8/09/2006 BakBone Software (BKBO) update
8/04/2006 GlobalSCAPE (GSCP)
8/03/2006 ETLT cash restrictions
8/01/2006 Heron finally picks up the phone... ETLT
8/01/2006 Cameco says uranium spot market is hot
July 2006 Posts
7/27/2006 BakBone Software (BKBO) open letter to shareholders
7/26/2006 Short Interest!
7/25/2006 Yet another big jump in the uranium spot price
7/25/2006 EMGP, ELDO, both bad
7/24/2006 DEWY, DGIX, EIUS, all bad
7/24/2006 DAC Technologies (DAAT)
7/24/2006 Edac Technologies (EDAC)
7/24/2006 Gensym Corp (GNSM) revisited
7/23/2006 Bulldog Technologies (BLLD) revisited
7/23/2006 American Dairy (ADY) Q1 results
7/22/2006 Epolin (EPLN) Q1 results
7/22/2006 Miller Industries (MLR) revisited
7/21/2006 Liberty Bell Bank (LBBB)
7/19/2006 Animal Cloning Sciences (ANML)
7/19/2006 American Dairy (ADY) 10-K
7/18/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) Nan'an contract
7/17/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) amended contract
7/13/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) lands phase 2 of Fujian
7/10/2006 Precision Auto Care (PACI) stop following
7/10/2006 thoughts on CXTI
7/10/2006 International Speedway (ISCB)
7/09/2006 Navstar Media Holdings (NVMH) revisiting
7/08/2006 Imagenetix (IAGX) revisited
7/06/2006 Short interest published July 26
7/05/2006 Table Trac (TBTC) revisited
7/05/2006 Pharsight Corp (PHST)
7/04/2006 Eddie Bauer Holdings (EBHC) out of bankruptcy
7/03/2006 Opthalmic Imaging Systems (OISI) update
7/02/2006 China Energy Savings Technology (CESV)
June 2006 Posts
6/29/2006 Roller coaster of Luvoo (LVTI)
6/28/2006 SunWin (SUWN) launches marketing campaign
6/28/2006 BakBone Software (BKBO) Announces More Waiting
6/28/2006 CPI Aerostructures (CVU) gets a shiny star
6/24/2006 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) updated uranium estimate
6/18/2006 Celebrated liberal strategist was a paid shill
6/17/2006 Notice the absence of advertisements?
6/17/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) amended 2004 10-K
6/16/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) new SEC filings
6/14/2006 Huge jump in uranium spot price
6/13/2006 BakBone Software (BKBO) yet another open letter bought shares
6/12/2006 Mistakes 2
6/09/2006 Strathmore Buries the Bad News
6/09/2006 Great new EDGAR search feature
6/06/2006 The overall US stock markets are...
May 2006 posts
5/30/2006 Triangle Multimedia Limited (QBID) ends
5/29/2006 Checking back with Mr. Market: 2
BUKS, XAIN, YIWA, SHFK, SODI, YHGG
5/28/2006 Opthalmic Imaging Systems (OISI)
5/28/2006 Checking back with Mr. Market: 1
BFTC, LIAL, LCLG, BRSI, BSOG, BAYN, RCBK, CNB, CFNA, WTFC, Pacific International Bank, BGII, BLYM, AMEN, BVBC, BNSIA, BOGN, BONL, BAWC, BWTL, BPTR, BDLF, BLLD, BURCA, LVWD, BKBO, BOJF, SCCB
5/26/2006 CPI Aerostructures (CVU) director resigns
5/26/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) Q1 Results
5/26/2006 Epolin (EPLN) 10-K
5/23/2006 Pharsight (PHST)
5/22/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) 10-K
5/19/2006 ETLT has filed their 10-K!!!!!!
5/19/2006 Misc Thoughts on ETLT, CXTI, and Strathmore
5/17/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) now the 10-Q is late
5/15/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) Q1
5/13/2006 Pointer Telocation Ltd. (PNTR) revisiting
5/09/2006 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) raises $8.7 million
5/04/2006 Pink Sheets proposes new SEC rule
5/04/2006 Sunwin (SUWN) Q3 results
5/03/2006 Noble Roman's (NROM) 10-K
5/02/2006 Jones Soda (JSDA) 10-K
5/02/2006 Genex Pharmaceutical (GENX) fraud?
April 2006 posts
4/29/2006 Auditor denied
4/28/2006 Nicholas Financial (NICK) Q4 results
4/28/2006 Harbin Electric (HRBN)
4/25/2006 Revisiting companies 13
IDIB, MHJ, MLR, HOOB, HYDI, DYSL, DWVS
4/22/2006 Some companies from the past: NICK, MEOH, CTAS, KEM, SJM, AAON, GWR
4/18/2006 Waiting for ETLT's 10-K
4/17/2006 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) Canadian Press Release
4/12/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) Wins Next Phases
4/11/2006 Short Interest Reporting Begins July 3
4/09/2006 Revisiting companies 12
FAME, GACF, DAAT, DEWY, DFNS, DSCI
4/09/2006 The Rose and the Onion
4/08/2006 SXR Uranium One Inc. (SXRFF)
4/07/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) Shishi City Contract
4/07/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) wins a small contract
4/06/2006 Epolin (EPLN) announces dividend policy, 2 cents
4/04/2006 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF, STM.V) finds more Roca Honda uranium
4/03/2006 CXTI convertibles
4/03/2006 EITF 00-19
4/02/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) 2005 10-K
4/02/2006 My opinion on CXTI
4/02/2006 Disclosure: Part II
4/01/2006 Where have you gone, ETLT?
4/01/2006 China Expert Technology (CXTI) Temporary Placeholder
March 2006 posts
3/30/2006 C P I Aerostructures (CVU) Q4 results
3/27/2006 Revisiting companies 11
DRUG, SMID, SOTK, GDVI, LVLT, AORGB, ARKN, AMNF, ARTNB, USTG, SUWN
3/25/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) Sept 05, 2005 10-Q/A
3/25/2006 CXTI Sept 05, 2005 10-Q/A
3/24/2006 HQSM update
3/21/2006 China Expert Technology, Inc.
3/21/2006 Google Finance rocks
3/21/2006 BGII's unaudited full year report
3/18/2006 Misc Thoughts
3/13/2006 Chinese R&D
3/12/2006 China Entertainment Group (CGRP)
3/11/2006 Coca Cola Amatil Ltd (CCLAY)
3/08/2006 Uranium spot price jumps up a dollar
3/04/2006 Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, BRKB) annual report
3/04/2006 Mike Price, 15 year old investor
3/03/2006 Supply/demand imbalances and intrinsic value
3/02/2006 First batch of 2006
CAFE, CAIFY, CARSO/CARSP, CATC
3/01/2006 Yet Another Strathmore Press Release
February 2006 posts
2/28/2006 Overheated uranium
2/27/2006 Strathmore emphasizes the badness of bad news
2/26/2006 What's Next?
2/25/2006 Paper Money
2/22/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) Wal*Mart Mangoes
2/21/2006 Visual Display of Financial Statements
2/21/2006 Epolin Inc. (EPLN) Links
2/21/2006 Epolin Inc. (EPLN) Q3 Results
2/21/2006 Epolin Inc. (EPLN) 10-K
2/20/2006 Keynote Systems (KEYN) quick look
2/20/2006 revisiting companies 10 (finished the cycle)
DRUG, ERIF, SMID, SPOP, SOTK, TBV, TLF, DXPE, GDVI, USOO, UMCI, LVLT, AORGB, APYM, ARKN, AMNF, ARTNB, VSYS, USTG, SUWN
2/19/2006 cash flow three card monte, CF3CM
2/16/2006 investment blogs to avoid ("pink sheets are crisp in June")
2/16/2006 CXTI press release... and Q3 results
2/15/2006 Strathmore (STHJF) Church Rock permitting: on schedule and under budget
2/14/2006 CPI Aerostructures (CVU)
2/14/2006 LiveWorld (LVWD)
2/13/2006 fun with data
2/12/2006 bouncing off tangents
2/10/2006 revisiting companies 9
DYHP, DTGLF, FAME, CITY, BGII, GACF, GBEL, GARM, DAAT, DAOU, DDSI, DEWY, DFNS, DNII, DSCI, DYNR
2/08/2006 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) more news
2/07/2006 AccuFacts Pre-Employment Screening (APES) Summary
2/07/2006 AccuFacts Pre-Employment Screening (APES) misc 2
2/07/2006 AccuFacts Pre-Employment Screening (APES) misc
2/07/2006 AccuFacts Pre-Employment Screening (APES) Q3 Results
2/07/2006 AccuFacts Pre-Employment Screening (APES) 10-K
2/05/2006 China Leaps Forward... on nuclear power
2/05/2006 Stop and Think
2/05/2006 SORL Auto Parts (SAUP) 10-K, incomplete
2/01/2006 Valuation estimate of ETLT
January 2006 posts
1/29/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) More on the E-Sea clinic work
1/29/2006 revisiting companies 8
IDIB, MHJ, MLR, HOOB, HYDI, HWWI, BUF, DYSL, DWVS
1/28/2006 revisiting companies 7
MRCR, GENX, JSDA, LWLL, NROM, NXUS, OHRI, OISI, PPDA, PHST, EBHC, PACI, PASW, OPTO, OPCO, PGRA, PCYN, NVMH, CKGT, INLM, ISCB, IMMD, IAGX, IBTGF
1/25/2006 What can go wrong STHJF, ETLT, CXTI
1/24/2006 Sunwin (SUWN) update
1/24/2006 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) E-Sea update
1/21/2006 revisiting companies 6
HEMA, HFIT, HNNA, MPAA, MPAD, MTWD, MHCO, MIOK, AVEE, GDVI, GNCMB, GNSM, GLMA, PKX, HCAR, BKBO, BAWC, BWTL, BLLD, BURCA, BUKS, YIWA, SHFK, ADY, BABB, CBBT, QBID, CEEC, BGII, AMEN, BONL, TELT
1/21/2006 Dictionary of Extrafinancial Terms
1/20/2006 News businesses
1/16/2006 The Columbian Exposition of 1893
1/16/2006 ETLT, World's longest tax ends
1/14/2006 More raw sewage
UPDA, UPWT, USPL, USPO, IWNK, AORGB, ACTC, ADDI, ADTR
1/12/2006 AMTEX machinery (AMXY)
1/12/2006 A batch of raw sewage
VCST, VGPO, VIAI, APTD
1/11/2006 Uranium news
1/08/2006 another pile of companies
ARKN, AMNF, ARTNB, VBAC, VCAT, VCYA, VERA, VFIN, VHSL, VIIN, VKSC, VLTA, VSCE, VSTN, VSYS
1/07/2006 more companies
USTI, UTGN, UVICF, UVIH, AOXY, APOA, APRJ, ARCS, ARHN, ARIS
1/04/2006 Strathmore finds a tiny bit of extra uranium...
1/04/2006 Sunwin (SUWN) humorous press release
1/02/2006 Thomas Leger & Co. auditors
1/02/2006 Doubts about doubts about going concerns
1/01/2006 Sunwin International Nutraceuticals (SUWN) Q2
1/01/2006 Sunwin International Nutraceuticals (SUWN) 10-K
December 2005 posts
12/31/2005 A look at Sherb & Company, auditors
12/27/2005 Another two companies USNU, USOO
12/27/2005 Two more companies UMCI, UNFY
12/27/2005 Level 3 Communications (LVLT)
12/27/2005 Teltronics, Inc (TELT) quarterlies
12/27/2005 Teltronics, Inc (TELT) 10-K
12/26/2005 Ultimate Franchise Systems, Inc. (UFSM)
12/26/2005 Hookah Diving and Union Dentists... both bad UCPJ, UDHI
12/26/2005 True Religion (TRLG) high fashion jeans
12/26/2005 more companies
UAMA, UCIA, UCNN
12/24/2005 More companies, ho ho ho
WCSTF, ALGOF, AMHI, AMLH, AMLJ, AMLS, AMRU, AMST
12/24/2005 Torotel Products Inc. (TTLO)
12/21/2005 uranium prices
12/20/2005 Voyage of the Beagle
12/19/2005 next batch of businesses
ADGR, ADSO, ADEU, AFPC, AGIS, AHOM
12/18/2005 more companies
WMFG, WPEC, WSRT, WSZZ, WTEC, WTEK, ACRG, ACLI, ADEP
12/17/2005 some more companies
WDPT, WEGI, WHAI, WKOL, WLGC, WLRE, WLSA
12/13/2005 Two more companies
12/12/2005 another batch of companies
ABHH, ACMC, ACMT
12/12/2005 more companies
TROLB, TRTI, TSSW, TTLG, TTMC, TTVL, TWOC, ROHI, RUSS, RYFL, RZPK
12/11/2005 still more companies
TMED, TMFZ, TMOL, TMSS, TNEX, TNRK, TOTG, TPFS, TPOP, TRDY
12/10/2005 more companies
TENF, TGFN, TGIS, TGLC, TKCRF, TLDN, TLST, TMAV, PUBSF, PUFF, PVCC, PVIS, PXHB, PBHG, PYNGF, QMRK, QRSM, RGBL, RIMS, ROBE
12/07/2005 Stop and Think
YHGG, CXTI, STHJF, LVWD
12/07/2005 China Expert Technology (CXTI) Links
12/07/2005 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) Links
12/06/2005 Table Trac (TBTC) conclusion
12/06/2005 Table Trac (TBTC) competitors
12/06/2005 Table Trac (TBTC) Google checking
12/06/2005 Table Trac (TBTC) more stuff
12/06/2005 Table Trac (TBTC) Q1 to Q3
12/06/2005 Table Trac (TBTC) 10-K
12/05/2005 still more companies
TCLL, TCNH, TCOW, TEGY
12/05/2005 YaSheng's Q3 Results closed out position
12/03/2005 POSCO Steel (PKX)
12/03/2005 more companies
SAUP, AVEE, LLNG, GDVI, GNCI, GNCMB, GNSM, GLMA, GSCP, GSHO, PKX, HCAR
November 2005 posts
11/30/2005 revisiting companies 5
11/26/2005 revisiting companies 4
11/25/2005 China Finance Online (JRJC) vs China Finance, Inc (CHFI)
11/24/2005 even more companies
JEWLF, JLMC, JLWT, JSDA, KBLH, KICH, KINV, KNVA, KORH, KPCG, KSCI, LWLL, DNDT
11/24/2005 Strathmore Minerals (STM.V) update
11/22/2005 more companies
PPLCE, PRAC, PRGF, PTNX, PRRO, PRRR
11/21/2005 The Iraqi Stock Market
11/21/2005 Revisiting Companies 3
BKBO, LVWD, BOJF, BANI, SCCB, BAWC, FDVA, CPFB, BWTL, BPTR, BLLD, BURCA, BUKS, XAIN, YIWA, SHFK, SODI, ADY, BABB, CBBT, QBID, CDGT, CEEC
11/21/2005 portfolio accounting
11/19/2005 another batch of companies
NPTI, NRCNA, NROM, NWRG, NXUSF, OHRI, OISI, POLGA, PONN, PPDA
11/16/2005 HQSM Q3 results
11/16/2005 YaSheng Group (YHGG) methanol update
11/16/2005 How to think about corporations
11/15/2005 again more companies
PHST, PACI, PASW, PCLP, OPTO, OPCO
11/15/2005 more companies
PIHC, PLNT, PGRA, PHCCA, PHCO
11/15/2005 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) new 10-Q
11/14/2005 more companies
MRGG, PCYN, PDGE, PDSV, PFIT, VLDT, VDXH
11/13/2005 Still more "I" companies
ISSG, ITAT, ITER, ITEX, IVNE, CKGT, IWTT
11/13/2005 Barter Systems and Marketing ITEX, INLM
11/13/2005 Charles Darwin
11/12/2005 Another quick look at Eternal Technologies (ETLT)
11/12/2005 Another quick look at YaSheng Group (YHGG)
11/12/2005 More "I" companies
IMTG, INEY, INFD, INIV, INLM, IPFS, ISCB, ISHP
11/11/2005 closed out CXTI investment
11/11/2005 YaSheng Group (YHGG) methanol
11/10/2005 LiveWorld (LVWD) Q3 results
11/10/2005 more companies
ONEA, IMDD, IMFN, IMMD, IMSI
11/09/2005 thoughts on a Wednesday morning, CXTI, LVWD, CVU, VCLK
11/08/2005 As Seen on TV (ONTV) Apparent Fraud
11/05/2005 Some "I" businesses
IAGX, IAIC, IAUS, IBDI, IBTGF, IDIB, IECE, IEHC, IFSC, IFTH, IMCI
October 2005 posts
10/30/2005 HQSM 10-K
10/30/2005 HQ Sustainable Maritime Industries (HQSM)
10/29/2005 Man Sang Holdings (MHJ)
10/29/2005 HIA, Inc. (HIAI)
10/29/2005 Miller Industries (MLR)
10/28/2005 more for the "Worth Following" list
HOOB, HYDI, HWWI, MNRD, DYSL, HRBN, DWVS, DYHP, DTGLF, FAME, GACF, GBEL, GARM, DAAT, DAOU, DDSI, DEWY, DFNS, DNII, DSCI, DYNR, DRUG, EBHC, EPLN, ERIF, EZEN, EVDR, JOES, RZPK, EVDR, ERMS, ETEC, GECO, MLTO, SMID, SPOP, SPSC, SCIE, SOTK, SPND, TBV, KMGB, SZI, TLF, DXPE
10/28/2005 China Expert Technology (CXTI) private placement
10/28/2005 Sarbanes-Oxley Act discussion
10/28/2005 Some discarded companies
HOVVB, HSPR, HRBGF, HTDS, HTLJ, HTVL, HVYB, HMWS, NMXS, NNBP, NNLX, NPDI, NMSCA, NPFV, HDRX, HGIIA, HICKA, HISC, HCFB, NIMU, NEXH, NLEQ, NMKT, MLOG, MLTO, MOBK, MODM, MCAM, MCET, MRCR, MRGN, MRFD, MSITF, FCPG, FIND, FTPI, FRMO, FSCR, FULO, MDVN, MDTA, DVID, DYTM, DOWJB, DSSI, DXXFF, DTIX, DTTO, FBGO, FATS, GBCS, GBIR, GAXC, GECO, DMEC, DRMS, DNAG, EBLC, SEHI
10/27/2005 more businesses
HCAR, HEMA, HFIT, HNNA, MKRS, MPAA, MPAD, MRPT, MEK, MTWD, MHCO, MIOK
10/26/2005 Hanover Foods (HNFSA, HNFSB)
10/26/2005 some rambling on Oct 26
10/25/2005 This blog is worth... thousands
10/25/2005 Genex Pharm. (GENX) 10-K
10/22/2005 several "G" companies
GEEK, GDVI, GFRP, GMOS, GNCI, GNCMB, GNSM, GOKN, GLMA, GLOI, GESM, GSCP, GSHO
10/21/2005 YaSheng Group (YHGG) new auditor
10/19/2005 Lam Liang Corp (LLNG)
10/17/2005 BakBone Software (BKBO) yet another open letter
10/17/2005 Unusual Copyright Statement
10/16/2005 Advant-E Corporation (AVEE) high level overview
10/16/2005 Moro Corporation (MRCR)
10/13/2005 Chinese reverse mergers
AVEE, CAAS, CAGC, CBBT, CHDW, DXPE, KMGB, PGJ, SZI, TBV, TLF, CBAK, GBLP, SAUP
10/10/2005 Revisiting Companies 2
SODI, ADY, BABB, BACL, CACC, China Bak Battery (CBAK), Caprius (CAPS), QBID, CCCI, C-Chip Technologies (MANS), CDGT, CEDA, CEEC, CEQH, CHFI, CHID, CHEY, CITY, Malibu Cola (CLCL)
10/09/2005 Sorel Auto Parts (SAUP)
10/09/2005 YaSheng Group (YHGG) update
10/08/2005 Global Aircraft Solutions (GACF) 10-K
10/06/2005 reading list
10/03/2005 FP Group (FPGR)
10/03/2005 First Investors Financial Services Group (FIFS)
10/01/2005 Dynasil Corp (DYSL)
September 2005 posts
9/28/2005 Fannie Mae (FNM)
9/28/2005 China Expert Technology (CXTI) comments, assessment
9/28/2005 China Expert Technology (CXTI) Q2
9/28/2005 China Expert Technology (CXTI) Q1
9/28/2005 China Expert Technology (CXTI) 8-Ks
9/25/2005 China Expert Technology (CXTI) 10-K
9/25/2005 China Expert Technology (CXTI)
9/25/2005 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) comments etc.
9/25/2005 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) 2nd Quarter 10-Q
9/25/2005 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) proxy
9/24/2005 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) various 8-K statements
9/24/2005 Eternal Technologies (ETLT) 10-K
9/22/2005 DND Technologies (DNDT)
9/21/2005 Ezenia! (EZEN)
9/18/2005 Bonus America (BAWC) Q2
9/18/2005 Bogen Communications (BOGN) Q2 results
9/17/2005 Emergent Group (EMGP)
9/17/2005 DAC Technologies (DAAT)
9/16/2005 Dyna Group International (DGIX)
9/11/2005 Revisiting companies
Ballistic Recovery (BRSI), Bank of the James (BOJF), BANI, SCCB, Private Bank of the Penninsula (PBPC), First Sound Bank (FSWA), Stonegate Bank (SGBK), BNSIA, Bogen Communications (BOGN), BGII, Billy Martin's (BLYM), AMEN, BONL, BAWC, BWTL, BPTR, BLLD, BURCA, BUKS, XAIN, YIWA, SHFK
9/10/2005 Edac Technologies (EDAC) misc stuff
9/10/2005 Edac Technologies (EDAC) 10-Q
9/10/2005 Edac Technologies (EDAC) 10-K
9/08/2005 Computer Services, Inc. (CSVI)
9/07/2005 Clean Systems Technology (CSTM)
9/06/2005 Capital Solutions I (CSON)
9/04/2005 CapSource Financial (CPSO)
9/04/2005 Level 3 Communications (LVLT)
9/03/2005 CaminoSoft (CMSF) assessment
9/02/2005 CaminoSoft (CMSF) 10-K
9/02/2005 CaminoSoft (CMSF)
August 2005 posts
8/28/2005 Very Bad Business Idea Malibu Cola
8/27/2005 Avalon Correctional Services (CITY)
8/24/2005 China Energy & Carbon Black Holdings (CHEY)
8/24/2005 China Finance Online (CHFI) 10-K
8/22/2005 China Finance Online (CHFI)
8/21/2005 COR Equity Management (CEQH)
8/20/2005 China Evergreen (CEEC) Announcement
8/20/2005 China Evergreen (CEEC)
8/19/2005 China Education Alliance (CEDA) 10-K
8/18/2005 Strathmore (STHJF) shifts into higher gear
8/18/2005 China Education Alliance (CEDA)
8/18/2005 China Digital Media (CDGT) new 10-Q
8/18/2005 China Digital Media (CDGT) 8-Ks continued
8/17/2005 China Digital Media (CDGT) 8-Ks
8/17/2005 China Digital Media (CDGT) 10-K
8/17/2005 China Digital Media Corporation (CDGT)
8/16/2005 C-Chip Technologies (MANS)
8/15/2005 funny stuff: when presidents go bad
City Capital Corporation (CCCN), YaSheng Group (YHGG)
8/15/2005 China Cable & Communication (CCCI)
8/13/2005 Triangle Multi Media (QBID)
8/13/2005 Caprius (CAPS) 10-Q for Q1 05
8/11/2005 Caprius (CAPS)
8/10/2005 China BAK Battery (CBBT)
8/08/2005 CACC: 8-Ks
8/07/2005 Credit Acceptance Corporation (CACC)
8/07/2005 New York Health Care (BACL)
8/07/2005 Big Apple Bagels (BABB)
8/05/2005 operational leverage
8/01/2005 American Dairy, Inc (ADY)
July 2005 posts
7/30/2005 still more of nothing
7/27/2005 The 10 business models
7/27/2005 Solitron Devices (SODI)
7/25/2005 nothin' much
7/24/2005 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) my guess of U3O8 per share
7/23/2005 BakBone Software (BKBO) collected entries
7/23/2005 LiveWorld (LVWD) collected entries
7/23/2005 YaSheng Group (YHGG) collected entries
7/23/2005 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) collected entries
7/23/2005 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) investment report
7/23/2005 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) press releases
7/23/2005 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) Q1 05 report
7/23/2005 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) 2004 continued
7/22/2005 Strathmore Minerals (STHJF) 2004 audited results
7/22/2005 Schuff International (SHFK) 2004 Annual Report
7/20/2005 BakBone Software (BKBO) EMEA resignation
7/19/2005 LiveWorld (LVWD) Q2 results
7/19/2005 YaSheng (YHGG) press release
7/18/2005 More about the Chinese legal system for business
7/18/2005 Yi Wan Group (YIWA) 10-K
7/17/2005 Yi Wan Group, Inc. (YIWA)
7/17/2005 YaSheng Group (YHGG) 10-Q
7/17/2005 YaSheng Group (YHGG) other stuff
7/17/2005 YaSheng Group (YHGG) Consolidated statements for 2004, 2003
7/16/2005 The Experimental Agency (XAIN)
7/16/2005 Butler National Corporation (BUKS)
7/16/2005 Burnham Holdings (BURCA)
7/16/2005 Bulldog Technologies (BLLD)
7/15/2005 Broadleaf Capital Partners (lousy)
7/15/2005 BPTR: Anthony Cataldo and fraud accusations
7/14/2005 BrandPartners Group (BPTR)
7/13/2005 Bowlin Travel Centers (BWTL)
7/13/2005 We few, we happy few, we band of bloggers
7/13/2005 BonusAmerica (BAWC)
7/12/2005 Bonal Technologies (BONL)
7/12/2005 Bogen Communications International (BOGN)
7/12/2005 BNS Holding (BNSIA)
7/12/2005 Blue Valley Bank Corp BVBC
7/10/2005 Community banks: conclusion
7/09/2005 still more community banks
Professional Business, Uniti, Mirae, Affinity Bank of PA, Port City Capital, Liberty Bell, Trinity, Indiana Business, Granite Community, Landmark National, Mariner, Landmark Community, Apple Valley B&T, Orange County Business, CommerceWest, Discovery, Cardinal State, Freedom Bank of Virginia, Mission Valley, California Community, Pacific City, Paciffic Commerce, Legacy, Integrity, Capital Pacific, Longleaf Community, Washington Business, Cedar Stone, Diablo Valley, Commerce National, Security Business Bank, Calnet Business, Pathfinder, Community Bank of Orange, Oregon Coast, Ventura County Business, Willamette Community, Suffold First, Alarion, Rivergreen, County Commerce
7/05/2005 Community Banks (continued)
Pacific West, Maryland Financial, Main Street, Santa Clarita, Citizens Community, San Diego Trust, Pascack Community, Towne Bank of Arizona, Commonwealth National
7/03/2005 Back to the Community Banks
GBTB, 1st Regents, United American, Beach Community, Bridge, Napa, Bank of Michigan, Sunrise Banks, Point Loma, Escondido, Capital Bancorp
7/02/2005 BakBone Software: re-stated 2003 10-K
7/01/2005 BakBone Software: 8-Ks and such
7/01/2005 BakBone: 2004 10-K (continued)
June 2005 posts
6/28/2005 Repository of Unexpected Random Observations
6/27/2005 BakBone Software: last year's 10-K (2004)
6/23/2005 The RIGHT way to deliver bad news BakBone Software (BKBO)
6/22/2005 LVWD: key shareholders
6/22/2005 LVWD: prospectus notes continued (form S-1)
6/22/2005 LVWD: press release
6/21/2005 LVWD: prospectus notes (form S-1)
6/20/2005 LVWD: Peter Friedman
6/20/2005 LVWD: Chris Christensen
6/20/2005 LVWD: Client Services
6/19/2005 LVWD: community websites
6/17/2005 Amen Properties (AMEN)
6/15/2005 Billy Martin's USA (BLYM)
6/14/2005 Biddeford and Sacco Water Company (BDDD)
6/13/2005 next up BGII
6/09/2005 Pacific International Bank
6/07/2005 Wintrust Financial (WTFC)
6/06/2005 Commonwealth National Bank (CWEA)
6/06/2005 First Community Bank of Joliet
6/06/2005 Seacoast Commerce Bank (SCCB)
6/05/2005 River City Bank (RCBK)
6/05/2005 Bay National Corporation (BANI)
6/02/2005 Bank of the James
6/01/2005 Bank of Salem (Oregon)
6/01/2005 Ballston Spa National Bank
May 2005 posts
5/31/2005 Ballistic Recovery Systems
5/31/2005 Help Wanted
5/23/2005 Lincoln Logs
5/23/2005 Live World
5/22/2005 Lift A Loft
5/22/2005 BakBone Software
5/22/2005 b-Fast Corporation