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Monday, January 01, 2007

January 1, 2007

"Nothing changes
On New Year's Day"
- U2 -

I certainly hope not. I'd be perfectly happy for 2007 to pick up right where 2006 left off. With the new year, once again it's probably worth asking...


For Strathmore Minerals, I don't see a lot that can go wrong. There could be some huge new supply of uranium dumped on the market, but all that would do is forestall the inevitable crunch. If the new supply was large enough, it could drive out a lot of the smaller juniors, which would be good. I'm thinking it would take a lot to drive out Strathmore. Reasonable worst case would be a lot of dilution.

For CXTI, the Chinese government could find out that those consultant agreements are simply kickbacks to the local governments (I don't know if they are). I don't think that would kick CXTI out of the contracts; they'd probably just toss out the government officials and fine CXTI some large amount of money: dilution.

For CVU, the contracts could stop once again and they'd be faced with another drought. Could happen, but I consider it unlikely.

For BKBO, the accounting mess could simply continue on for a long time, but the operations don't need anything from the markets, so it wouldn't be very bad.

For EPLN, key employees could leave or some big chemical company could decide to jump into their line of business. But they have a fairly solid hold on the niche. This isn't a big investment for me, so I wouldn't be affected much.

CEDA? All the usual China issues could come into play. The same goes for CXTI. I can't think of much else. Maybe I'm just not very imaginative today.

I think the big things that can go wrong are with my own judgement. After the huge gains of last year, it would be easy to fall into various blunders such as losing focus or thinking whatever I do will be correct or not doing enough dilligence in the future or just getting lazy.


After going through the stocks I've looked at in the past and after doing some sifting through new stocks in the Pink Sheets, I've decided that it's important to keep the crap off the blog: avoid posting anything about lousy companies (unless they're truly entertaining) to avoid them being dragged into various retrospectives.

Most everything else to say I've already said in the past few weeks such as the next pass through the Pink Sheets. It's going slow.


For CXTI, I think there might be some kickbacks happening. I am from China so I think I know :) Since the kickbacks will be done by the consultant, CXTI should be OK.

But my concern is the rev. it probably stays flat Q4 of 2006. Q1 and Q2 of 2007 will be down imo.

I sold my holdings. there might be better time to buy in a few month.

I also bought some AAGH. but it is hard to get a size on these penney stocks.

Thanks for your great work.
Regarding CXTI, that was how I was viewing it: probably kickbacks, but with layers in between. I'm not really worried about dips in their revenue. But they are getting close to my sense of full value.

I sold a small amount of CXTI to buy another investment I've identified. It's proving to be tough to get into. Once I'm done buying I'll post the details here. I also have a 2nd potential investment waiting in the wings, but it's not as compelling.
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