Saturday, January 21, 2006
revisiting companies 6
revisiting companies 2
revisiting companies 3
revisiting companies 4
revisiting companies 5
Symbols being followed:
HEMA, HFIT, HNNA, MPAA, MPAD, MTWD, MHCO, SAUP, AVEE, GDVI, GNCI, GNCMB, GNSM, GLMA, PKX, HCAR, BKBO, BAWC, BWTL, BLLD, BURCA, BUKS, YIWA, SHFK, ADY, BABB, CBBT, QBID, CEEC, CITY, BGII, BONL, TELT, MRCR, GENX, JSDA, LWLL, NROM, NXUSF, OHRI, OISI, PPDA, PHST, PACI, PASW, OPTO, OPCO, PGRA, PCYN, PDSV, CKGT, INLM, ISCB, IMMD, IAGX, IBTGF, IDIB, MHJ, MLR, HOOB, HYDI, HWWI, MNRD, DYSL, HRBN, DWVS, DYHP, DTGLF, FAME, GACF, GBEL, GARM, DAAT, DAOU, DDSI, DEWY, DFNS, DNII, DSCI, DYNR, DRUG, EBHC, EPLN, ERIF, SMID, SPOP, SOTK, TBV, TLF, DXPE, GDVI, USOO, UMCI, LVLT, AORGB, APYM, ARKN, AMNF, ARTNB, VSYS, USTI, SUWN
HEMA (sec) Stock unchanged at around $1.70. No news. Prior.
HFIT (sec) Stock is up from around $2.00 to around $2.60. They're offering 6.6 million shares with a prospectus. They acquired healthCalc.net for $4 million and 847K shares of stock. Are they acquisition-happy? Prior.
HNNA (sec) Stock is up slightly. 10-K is out. 2.5 million shares. Their mutual funds have fairly crappy performance in my view although they beat the S&P 500. They had earned 93 cents in 9 months and earned another 27 cents in Q4 for a total of $1.20 diluted for the year. P/E of 15 would be a stock price of $18. Selling for $28.
MPAA (sec) Stock is about the same. Q3 results: Revenues up 18.8%. Gross margins increased. Operating income was down 10.5% due to G&A, they said it was due to SEC review of filings and SOX. Net income was down to 19 cents for Q3, 4 cents for 6 months. Cash flow from ops was terrible due to a huge increase in inventory, also inventory returned, and credit due customer.
MPAD (sec) Stock is up over 30%. Nothing new except a special dividend of 15 cents.
MTWD (sec) Stock is down somewhat. Q3 results: strong balance sheet. Gross margins 44% vs 55% in prior year. Operating expenses went up due to advertising, license and permits, rent, and some other stuff. Net income was fairly close to prior year, but less. Cash flow from ops improved, but still below earnings. Free cash flow is about half of earnings. Earnings were 1 cent. Stock is around $1.00. Overpriced.
MHCO (sec) Stock is up slightly.
MIOK (website) Stock is way up to $1.50 from 50 cents (it was over $2.00 for a while). Here was what I said about them: "they're making a cheap GPS system, which is good, but I fear that the big companies will duplicate what they're doing and do it even cheaper with large volume." Their most recent financial report is for June 30, 2005.
AVEE (sec) Stock is up. Nothing new.
GDVI (sec) Stock is down, but not enough, best ask is 7.4 cents. Probably worth only 8 cents. Q2 results are out. Revenues are way up. Net margin is very low. Earned a quarter of a cent for 6 months.
GNCMB (sec) Stock is unchanged with best ask at $11.00. They're investing $29 million in Alaska DigiTel. A board member is retiring with their son taking over the role. There's still a lot of stuff here that I'm not looking at, maybe waiting for a price drop.
GNSM (sec) Stock price is about the same. No news.
GLMA (sec) Stock price is down from $1.70 to $1.55. The 10-K is out. 2.2 million shares, 55K options outstanding. Current ratio is now > 1. Equity is up. Revenues are up. Gross margins are down (and only 15.8%). SG&A is about the same. Net margins are only 0.5%. Earnings are 4.5 cents totally diluted. Cash flow from ops is negative. Capex is large.
They acquired a marine boat mold company in mid 2005. Q4 earnings were lower than the average of Q1-Q3.
PKX (sec) Stock is about the same. I recall they had a bad quarter and some issues.
HCAR (sec) Stock is down somewhat, but not below the $1.20 value I had estimated. They're buying Nissan of Natick (Mass) for $2 million plus inventory, parts, and tools.
BKBO (sec) Stock is down and I've been looking at this one. The Toronto exchange will probably drop them, but it doesn't affect the pink sheets stock. Also, they're going to acquire Constant Data for $5 million cash and contingent payments of about half a million.
BAWC (sec) Stock is more or less up. The Q3 came out right after I last looked at it. Balance sheet is about the same but revenues are way down. Operating loss, but not as bad as last year. Free cash flow is about the same. Their cash flow statement doesn't seem to add up.
BWTL (sec) Stock jumped back up to $1.94 from around $1.50. Auditors left. Revenues are way up but that's due to increased gas prices (restaurant sales decreased 9%). Net margin is nearly zero for Q3 in both years. Cash flows look ok.
Net income for 9 months increased from $384K to $495K and that's only because of the increased gas price. The costs associated with the new travel center are probably merely the costs needed to stand still in market share. Earned 10.8 cents per diluted share for 9 months. Perhaps the stock is worth $2.10.
New travel center (Picacho, AZ) opened Jan 18, 2005. It will replace an existing travel center (which had negative 38% comps due to the new store). Negative impact even in Q3 ending Oct (depreciation). Merchandise sales: $253K. Gasoline sales: $491K.
BLLD (sec) Stock is down somewhat to $1.11. They're late filing the latest 10-Q, no good reason given. Bulldog Mexico started operations and has teamed up with a Mexican VAR and another Mexican company supplying various stuff (fleet communications, satellite mapping, microscopes, etc).
Primary among immediate opportunities for the Bulldog/Irosa partnership is the soon to be passed Mexican Customs regulation requiring electronic cargo container security seals and GPS tracking devices on the border crossing points (Tijuana to Matamoros), the logistic corridor (Manzanillo-Kansas City ) and for the PITEX Program (temporary imports program for exports). Both a security and a customs revenue tracking mandate, this initiative calls for a dual purpose device that is affordable for transportation companies while providing complete transparency of cargo status and manifest integrity. To date, the patented Bulldog RoadBOSS™ GTS and YardBOSS™ are the only devices that are able to offer this functionality.New prospectus. for 6.4 million shares of stock. These are being resold, not new shares (except for some warrants associated with an Aug 29 private placement and April 13, 2004 private placement). 24 million shares outstanding on Nov 1, 2005. This appears to be the same as the prospectus of Oct 12, 2005 prior.
BURCA (website) Stock is down slightly to $22.25. No news since the Q3 results in the prior revisit. Still not cheap enough.
BUKS (sec) Stock is way up to 51 cents from 34 cents (which was down from 50 cents). These are the Learjet upgraders. Their 10-Q is out for the quarter ending Halloween and the proxy is out. Condensed results show revenues and profits down.
YIWA (sec) Stock has tanked to 8 cents on the ask from 28 cents. They never released Q3 results, their website has expired, there's no news. This is very troubling. I want to continue following it just to see what happens.
SHFK (sec website) Stock is up a bit to $7.00. They're going dark. Nothing new, next expected statement should be the annual report on their website. Wait and see what that looks like.
ADY (sec) Stock nearly doubled to $12. It took off in early January when the company issued a press release giving financial expectations for the year of at least 70 cents earnings per share. And they expect 2006 to be nearly double that. They're hyping the stock now on US television. I suspect the stock will never be cheap again, but who knows.
BABB (sec) Stock is down to $1.09. No news.
CBBT (sec) Stock is way up to $10.00 from $6.50. The 10-K came out. They obviously added capital from the prior year, but they also had significant earnings. Revenues are way up. They earned 32 cents diluted for the year (11 cents in Q4), but cash flow from ops is way negative due to AR. So a lot of those revenues are financed sales. Also enormous capex (10 times depreciation) which is not surprising since they're doing serious investment now.
QBID and now for comic relief. The stock continues its long downward plunge. The best ask is now 1/50 of a cent. There are 1.3 billion shares outstanding so the market cap is around a quarter of a million dollars. But don't get too excited; these people do not seem the least bit business savvy. Consider this press release:
Triangle Multi-Media (Pink Sheets:QBID) announced today that, in accordance with SAAG, Triangle Multi-Media will start accounting for Q Television Network as a 100% wholly owned subsidiary. This means Triangle Multi-Media common shareholders own one hundred percent of Q Television Network's (QTN) total asset base, including its contracts with Time Warner, Cox Communications, RCN and Australia's SelecTV, as well as advertising revenue, tangible property, subscriber base and an independent audited film library worth over several hundred million dollars.... QTN will be accounted for as a wholly owned subsidiary of Triangle Multi-Media in accordance with SAAG.SAAG! Haha. I knew they'd continue to provide comic relief. They corrected it later.
BURBANK, Calif., Jan 10, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- First graph, first sentence and second graph, second sentence of release should read xxx in accordance with GAAP (sted in accordance with SAAG).
The corrected release reads:
[rest of press release follows]
Keep making mistakes and correcting them. You're only helping out Warren Buffett (Berkshire now owns Business Wire).
And once again, they only sound stupid when they claim the film library is worth "several hundred million dollars". Any reasonable financial person would know that to make that sort of claim about something fairly intangible like a film library, you need something to back it up with, especially when it's an outrageously high number like that. Consider this: "several hundred million dollars" would be at least $300 million, right? So it would need to generate a net revenue stream of at least 4% of that, or $12 million per year. Something tells me they aren't pulling in $12 million per year from their films.
Ok, so Triangle Multi-Media issued this distress release:
Migrating its programming service from major urban markets to middle America, Q Television Network (Pink Sheets:QBID) has announced its launch on the Time Warner Cable Nebraska system, servicing the Lincoln area and the seven colleges and universities in the marketplace. Lincoln area cable subscribers will be able to sign on for QTN's live, original, gay and lesbian programming as a 24/7 premium network, carried on channel 392 effective immediately, for a monthly fee of $7.95.Ok, so let's say 3% of Lincoln, Nebraskans identify with the gay and lesbian scene. We'll even bump that up to 5% considering it's not too far from Brokeback Mountain, Wyoming. Lincoln has a population of 226K and since we're talking about the greater metro area, we'll bump that up to 350K. So the total available market (TAM) is 1,500 people. Of course we need to assume some of those people are married, I mean in civil unions of some sort, so we'll say 1,100 households to be optimistic. I seriously doubt they'll get more than 25% of those households to sign up, which is still being optimistic. This means they might have revenues of $2,186/month before subtracting off whatever the cable company takes. So I'd be surprised if this is even $1,000/month of revenues, which is nothing when you're sitting on a film library worth "several hundred million dollars". But wait, in the press release, they claim:
The addition of Lincoln will extend QTN's reach by approximately 3 million digital cable households.The entire population of Nebraska is only about half that much, and that's assuming each person is a household and has cable. They probably meant to say to 3 million, since they have Houston, parts of NY and NJ, and Maine.
Let's do the math for 3 million households. Realistic TAM is about 100,000 households. And now we need to be fairly conservative, so we'll say that about 10% of those households sign up for QTN and that QBID makes about $4 per subscriber. That's $40,000/month or about half a million dollars per year in revenue.
CEEC (sec) Stock is unchanged at 25 cents. CEO resigned but will act as advisor to the company.
BGII (website) Stock is up to 66 cents (from 40 cents). Q4 results: Revenues are double last year's revenues. Earnings are expected at 8 cents undiluted. Remember that these people had an SEC investigation in 2002. They had their gambling machines seized in 2001 and 2002.
AMEN (sec) Stock is down slightly. Q3 results: Balance sheet is very strong. They started getting retail electricity revenues. They have an operating loss for the quarter and for the year.
BONL (website) Q2 results: A lot more cash on the balance sheet. AR and inventory are higher. Current ratio is still insanely high. Nearly all equity.
Revenues are up significantly. For 6 months: Gross margins are 74% (actually down from 76%). 23% operating margin (up from 20% due to a 36% increase in revenue from prior year). Net margin 17% (up from 16%). 9 cents diluted for 6 months. Share count unchanged.
No cash flow statement.
Unit sales volume has seen a 79% increase due to an increased volume of lower priced units sold in the first half of the year compared to last year in same six month period.
Foreign sales are continuing to be strong at 38.5% of unit volume.
"Our subsidiary, Bonal Technologies is continuing to grow in both US and foreign sales. We are happy with our results," said A. George Hebel, III, chairman of Bonal International. "We're also pleased to report that our new products Black Magic(R), for distortion control, and Pulse Puddle Arc Welding(R) are continuing to represent a good portion of our growth."
TELT (sec) Stock is up to 58 cents from 48 cents. No news.
You have a mighty fine written blog page. I enjoyed reading it. Keep up the good work.
BLLD, SPDV, JMAR, FRPT, RAR.V, IBAS, WFII are a few lil stocks in my dollar+ range 'hopefulls' list i keep my eye on (which chnages often hehe). Personally currently only in a pink sheet stock which i wont even mention since its so risky and dont wanna pump and dump :).
thought it would be useful to compile a list of uranium plays in my yahoo stock ticker for other people as well since i know u like strathmore since yellowcake is on a tear.
ALS.V ASXSF.OB CBAG.OB CVV.V CVVLF.OB CXX.V DEN.TO EGRAF.PK EMC.V ERA.AX ERD.V FCO.TO FRG GPTC.OB HBE.V IUC.TO JNN.V LAM.V MPM.V NCR.V PTU.V QCYE.OB STHJF.PK STM.V SXR.TO SXRFF.PK TRDM.OB TSC.V UEX.TO UEXCF.PK UPC.V URE.TO URN.V USEG USU UVN.V WNP.V
Ones with recent insider buying/options excerized (canadianinsider.com has recent ones i like to check out whose got the balls to back up their companies with actual insider purchases):
CVV.V ALS.V ERD.V FCO.TO HBE.V PTU.V TSC.V UEX.TO UPC.V UVN.V (hooray for Canada!)
still deciding on where to put uranium money this year, seems lie UEX.TO has some funds buying so i might go there, but who knows. waiting to see how this iranian thing pans out short term (1st gen iranian-american myself), but china/india are def gonna put pressure on competition for uranium for future reactors to drive their growth over next 20 years. market is looking good long term.
lates bruce, enjoy reading the raw sewage :) alot. One tiny suggestion if u are open to some criticism, it would nice for some relative rating system to the companies you watch. Instead of worth following and not following, -5 and 5 hehe. -5 for really awful hehe etc. but then again hard to come up with a rating number to a stock. keep up the good work,
Thanks for all the info. If you'd like I could drop that stuff into a post on its own (giving you credit, of course). Despite what I said earlier in a comment, I might consider digging through uranium companies, what with the price continuing to go up.
I hope people like the change in font that I made. The old font was horrible and I was somewhat afraid of trying to change it.
A real genuine thanks for the criticism. This is excellent. I've been thinking for the last couple of months that I've been making a mistake in focusing only on price vs value and not focusing enough on identifying/tagging quality companies. My first thought was that a one-dimensional measurement loses too much information, but the more I think about it, the more I prefer something very simple.
sure you can drop it off in another post. I got alot of picks myself from accumilating picks from a bunch of others posts/googling so might not want to credit me directly, your choice. Even forgot the biggest uranium play CCJ in there heh. Note: the pink sheets ones have a canadian equivilant STM.V=STHJF.PK, UEX=UEXCF.PK,SXR.TO=SXRFF.PK but are traded often enough so might wanna include.
The thing about these small companies is its all about the future, income statements/price to value comparision might not look great early but can find diamonds in rough going into black. Since i am a total newb(a.k.a. stink) at fundamental analysis :) ). I look more towards small companies gaining contracts with a few big companies or the government and hope the money train rolls in at some point (while making sure dilution is somewhat minimal (so a classic reverse split won't happen while i am invested), convertable debt/options are reasonably priced close to or even above the price of the stock, and insiders are buying, and sometimes just jump on the 'hype bandwagon' before anyone gets on it first). Sometimes works, sometimes doesn't; Market is crazy anyway :), so might as well risk it and have fun.
Yes i like the new font, didnt notice it really. Not sure but I think I noticed 'slight' use of more bold words though. It gets your attention better when you are identifying a company's position as good [ or laughable hehe].
For a company like Strathmore, do you just goto Sedar.com and analyze their financials there? id prefer to have a quick table so I can compare income quarterly. Wasnt sure what websites at all were out there for following canadian companies.