.comment-link {margin-left:.6em;}

Monday, May 28, 2007

Price Checks

I'm going back through some stocks I had looked at in the past and determining stock price changes. Just walking through the index of posts.

Intended Color Scheme
Actual investments sold at a significant loss (say more than 5%)
Actual investments sold at roughly breakeven
Actual investments that are currently doing ok
Actual investments sold for a substantial gain
Actual investments that are doing very well (Strathmore is the only one right now)
Acutal investments that haven't done well so far
Missed opportunities that were (at least somewhat) known
Missed opportunities that weren't really obvious
Discarded stocks where my valuation was way too high
Correctly discarded stocks

The Companies
b-Fast Corp (BFTC): 1.5 cents to 7 cents
BakBone Software (BKBO): $1.50 to $1.85 (not very good so far for a 2 year investment)
Bank of the James (BOJF): $17 to $17.50 (bad, correctly bailed)
Seacoast Commerce Bank (SCCB): mostly unchanged (bad, correctly bailed)
LiveWorld (LVWD): 54 cents, up only slightly over two years (bad, correctly bailed)
Bowlin Travel Centers (BWTL): unchanged (bad)
BrandPartners Group (BPTR): was over 75 cents, now 12 cents (correct call)
Bulldog Technologies (BLLD): stock is essentially zero (not surprising)
YaSheng Group (YHGG): recently jumped to $2.15 from under $1.75 (bad, correctly bailed)
Yi Wan Group (YIWA): huge drop (bad)
Schuff International (SHFK): was $3.50, I figured it was worth $4, it's now $27. (major miss)
Strathmore Minerals (2.5 bagger so far)
Solitron Devices (SODI): mostly unchanged (not surprising)
American Dairy (ADY): was $6.75 and is now $20.25 (major miss)
Credit Acceptance Corporation (CACC): Was comparing unfavorably to NICK, was $13 and is now $26 (major miss)
China Bak Battery (CBBT): down somewhat
Caprius (CAPS): down bigtime (not surprising)
C-Chip Technologies (MANS): down from around 40 cents to under 7 cents (correct call)
China Digital Media (CDGT): down bigtime (correct call?)
China Evergreen (now CHWG): not sure but seems down
China Finance Online (CHFI): Since the Shanghai stock market has gone through the roof, this depended on it and has done quite well, but only from about 40 cents to $1.13. (miss)
China Energy & Carbon Black Holdings (CHEY): went dark last year, can't find the stock
Avalon Correctional Services (CITY): I predicted it was worth $3, it's now $2.75, but it sat at $3 for a while (good call)
Malibu Cola, my favorite... not! (CLCL): Stock has gone nowhere (correct call so far)
CaminoSoft (CMSF): was $1.38, now 17 cents (more or less correct call)
Level 3 Communications (LVLT): They're still selling for around five dollars. Here's a case where the supply/demand imbalance hasn't played out and it's been five years waiting (bad)
CapSource Financial (CPSO): went from 51 cents to $2.50 and back down to $1.08 (miss, and also missed in selling Celedon too soon at around $6 in 2003 instead of nearly $16 today)
Computer Services (CSVI): pretty much unchanged (correct call)
Edac Technologies (EDAC): went from around $4 to $7.14 (somewhat of a miss, bailed too soon)
Dyna Group International (DGIX): was around $1, now 71 cents (more or less correct call)
DAC Technologies (DAAT): stock cut in half (correct call, they got squeezed on margins, but from a different direction: commodity prices and the renminbi)
Ezenia (EZEN): stock way down (bad call)
DND Technologies (DNDT): stock went essentially to zero (bad call)
Eternal Technologies (ETLT): has essentially gone nowhere
China Expert Technologies (CXTI): went from 85 cents to nearly 7 dollars! (higher, but I bailed)
Fannie Mae (FNM): my puts expired worthless (very small loss)
Dynasil Corp (DYSL): went from 71 cents to $1.90 (miss)
FP Group (FPGR): fell to 5 cents
Global Aircraft Solutions (GACF):
Sorl Auto Parts (SAUP): mostly unchanged
Moro Corporation (MRCR): was 87 cents, now $2.65 "It sure is wonderful to be able to pass on stocks with a P/E of less than 5" [kick self]
Advant-E Corporation (AVEE): was $1.20, now $1.81
Genex Pharm (GENX): mostly unchanged

Quick list of discards
HOVVB: bad
HSPR: bad
HRBGF: gone?
HTLJ: bad
HTVL: bad
HVYB: up a little bit
HMWS: gone?
NMXS: gone?
NNBP: rags to riches to rags
NNLX: bad
NPDI: bad
NMSCA: fluctuating
NPFV: gone?
HDRX: really bad
HGIIA: rags to riches to rags
HICKA: 2+ bagger
HISC: really bad
HCFB: up somewhat (this is HCSB Financial)
NIMU: 4+ bagger (but it was a development stage company back then)
NEXH: gone?
NMKT: about the same
MLOG: about the same, but essentially no volume in 2007
MLTO: bad
MOBK: gone?
MODM: 3 bagger
MCAM: about the same, lots of fluctuation
MCET: really bad
MRCR: 2+ bagger
MRGN: bad
MSITF: really bad
FCPG: really bad
FIND: bad
FSCR: bad
FULO: bad
MDVN: 6+ bagger
MDTA: 10 bagger (my notes say "software, bad")
DVID: really bad
DOWJB: fluctuating (aren't they a takeover target?)
DSSI: gone?
DXXFF: flatlined
DTIX: gone?
DTTO: bad
FBGO: gone?
FATS: gone?
GBCS: bad
GBIR: bad
GAXC: bad
GECO: gone?
DMEC: gone?
DRMS: gone?
DNAG: bad
EBLC: bad
SEHI: gone?

Quick list of "Worth Following" companies
HOOB: about the same
HYDI: 2+ bagger (it took off starting in mid October 2006, new stuff came out)
HWWI: bad
MNRD: gone?
DYSL: 2 bagger
HRBN: 2+ bagger
DWVS: gone?
DYHP: up slightly
DTGLF: gone?
FAME: up somewhat
GBEL: gone?
GARM: up (I claimed it was a wild card)
DAOU: gone?
DDSI: gone?
DEWY: bad
DFNS: about the same (down in between)
DNII: no info
DSCI: up somewhat
DYNR: 8 bagger ("a mine, but possibly selling cheap")
DRUG: bad
EBHI (was EBHC): down (I had a negative opinion, but I don't see it in the notes)
ERIF: gone?
EVDR: really bad
JOES: down
RZPK: up and then down
EVDR: really bad
ERMS: down
ETEC: down
SMID: down
SPOP: gone?
SPSC: gone?
SCIE: fluctuating
SOTK: bad
SPND: up somewhat
TBV: fluctuating
KMGB: roughly 2 bagger
SZI: gone?
TLF: up
DXPE: 3 bagger

Miller Industries (MLR): up slightly, was up a lot
Man Sang Holdings (MHJ): up somewhat
HQ Sustainable Maritime Holdings (HQS): I said it was worth a split adjusted $10, it's now $11.43
IAGX: I said it might be worth $1.50, it's now down to $1.25 from $2.55
IAIC: down
IAUS: up
IBDI: bad
IBTGF: bad (I claimed ignorance on this one)
IDIB: really bad
IECE: 2+ bagger
IEHC: about the same (I claimed ignorance on this one)
IFSC: down
IFTH: down to 25 cents which is what I thought it might be worth
IMCI: 2 bagger

IMDD: down
IMMD: up-down-up
BCSR (was IMSI): about the same

I ruled out a lot of things because I wasn't confident that I knew enough about them. I ruled out all mines which included an 8-bagger. I don't consider most of these mistakes because I had a lot more uncertainty than I might have now (not just in hindsight, but as a result of looking at so many of these tiny cap companies).

If there's a systematic error, it's being too cautious which is the right side to be erring on. I can also see the effects of the shotgun approach to brute force searching: a lot of stuff falls through the cracks. A lot of quick guesses of valuation are wrong in both directions. That's fine. If you look at any of the quick company checks, there's a lot of stuff that gets missed or misinterpreted. It's really just a filter to increase the concentration of good companies, not to capture them all and not to filter out all the bad stuff.

In the early days, I was too quick to invest.

The purple entries are ones that I fear (thinking something is worth X and having it eventually worth a small fraction of that, or zero). There might be one or two dark-green entries above that should be purple as I might not have caught them all in going through the list so fast.

Next is 11/12/2005.

Maybe it's just me, but a number of colors look the same, even for different categories


Actual investments sold at roughly breakeven
Acutal investments that haven't done well so far
Missed opportunities that weren't really obvious
Ok, I made it better.
Post a Comment

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?