Saturday, November 26, 2005
revisiting companies 4
revisiting companies 2
revisiting companies 3
SAUP (chart), this seemed like not a bad investment (quick look) at $6.45 and it's at $5.60 now. Also, the Q3 report is out.
Receivables have been climbing very high to 65% of all assets from about half of assets at year-end 2004. Revenues are up 30% (mostly for export out of China) but operating and net income remained about the same! They claim this is normal! Cash flow is horrible due to the AR increase. Capex is up.
They earned 33 cents in 9 months of 2005.
AVEE, (chart, website), Q3 results: revenues up 24%, net income up 37% to 2.6 cents per share in Q3, 6.2 cents for 9 months. Balance sheet is great. Very good free cash flow (first 9 months of both years). The stock is probably worth around $2.00 and the ask is $1.38. Stock may deflate lower. It would be worth doing a detailed analysis of AVEE to prepare for any opportunity.
worth looking into
LLNG, (chart, website), this was the Thailand personalized computer cases for women company. Q3 Results: still no revenue, still bleeding off the assets.stop following (which should be easy to do)
GDVI, (chart, website), still selling for around 8 cents a share. The $4 billion construction and repair bond passed the vote. They're going to solve the overcrowding of the Los Angeles school system. Geez, they were overcrowded when I was a student there in the early 1960s, with classes in "bungalos". GDVI will be featured on a SmallCap Television cable show on Jan 1, 2006, but check this out: GDVI paid "Smallcap TV" $40,000 in cash and 2 million shares to highlight GDVI. That's a lot for a business with total assets of $9.3 million and 138 million shares. If the price drops enough, this might be a good investment with the probable new work coming up. Without it, they're worth about 8 cents.
GNCI, (chart, website) new president, crude oil prices are falling which means this warning is probably not a big problem anymore (note that I had predicted oil prices would drop back down). Nothing else new, so this remains a low priority.
GNCMB, (chart, website) stock price is up to $11.00 from $9.50. Q3 results: Revenues are up slightly over Q2 and both are up significantly over 2004. They have a restructuring charge this quarter. 68.1% margins down from 69.2% last year. SG&A is up 3.5% over prior year and as a % of sales. Depreciation is also up significantly. All of this causes operating income to drop 14% from last year. Then there's the increase in interest expense, the loss on early extinguishment of debt (terminated a satellite transponder capital lease) and amortization and write-off of loan and senior notes fees (they admitted a bad loan).
So net income is in the toilet at 4 cents vs 15 cents. No realized stock dilution, even less since they bought back some stock. Less potential dilution since end of 2004. Free cash flow is zero for the year.
Reorg will be done Jan 1, 2006. Switching from long distance, cable, local access, and internet to consumer, commercial, carrier and managed broadband. This makes sense. Recent results: long distance and cable service revenue higher (wow) in fact all categories are higher. This is a good sign.
Verizon is merging with MCI (a major customer). No way to predict how this will impact the business (probably badly).
There's a lot of stuff here that I'm not looking at.
GNSM, (chart, website) shares are down slightly to $1.90. Q3 results: AR is way down. So are current liabilities. Based on this, I suspected revenues were way down and they are. Q3 revenues are down 28% from last year and down 31% from Q2 2005. SG&A is up from last year. Net loss of $1 million or 14 cents a diluted share. Cash flow from ops is positive due to the drop in AR (i.e. the pipeline is draining).
The decrease in revenues was across the board and not due to anything in particular.
GLMA, (chart, website) management changes. No new results. Share price is $1.70 at the ask (not much change).
GSCP, (chart, website) Q3 results: "Cute FTP" application. Share price up to $1.80 ask.
Revenues up 27% over last year but down some from Q2 (but Q2 was huge and I was worried it was a temporary blip). SG&A up from Q2. Earned 2.5 cents fully diluted in Q3 (vs 4 cents in Q2). Free cash flow is very good. No taxes. 14.3 fully diluted shares.
Cute FTP revenues increased only 1%. "Enhanced File Transfer" (introduced in late 2004) is increasing to 17% of revenue. "Secure Server" software increased to 22%.
I believe this business is an asymetrical risk. The odds of losing to some future application (possibly from Microsoft or some other big player) is fairly high. The odds of winning big are fairly small, although it could happen. Therefore I believe it's not worth the trouble of following this stock.
GSHO, (chart, website) stock price is down to $1.30 ask. Q3 results: Revenues still climbing. Gross margins are only about 10%. Earned 4 cents diluted for the quarter (9 cents for the first 9 months). Free cash flow so far this year is great (last year wasn't).
POSCO (PKX) the Korean steel company has way higher margins (24% operating margins, 19% net margins) and is selling very cheap. I need to do work on POSCO very soon.
stop following GSHO
HCAR, (chart, website, sec) New and used car sales. Q3 results: AR down from Q2. Revenues down from Q2 and prior year. Gross margin 14.2% (down from 14.3% in Q2). 1.6% operating margins. Earned 2 cents vs 13 cents in Q2 and 8 cents prior year. Not much dilution. Cash flow from ops very high due to assets and liabilities.
Q3: new car comps up 3.4% in dollars, 3.8% in cars sold.
Q3: used car comps down 0.8% in dollars, 7.5% in cars sold.
Q3: wholesale used comps up 11.3% in dollars, down 2.8% in cars sold.
Q3: parts comps up 5.7%
Q3: total comps up 3.1% in dollars.
Toyotas are selling well. Lincoln, Mercury down... why the hell do people still buy those things?
Cars with good gas mileage sold well.
New car inventories are down due to handing over the Westwood, NJ dealership to the 3 Vergopia family members (former executives and directors) as settlement of a legal issue. $4 million. HCAR received 940K shares of stock recorded at fair value of about $1.11 per share (equity reduced by $1.04 million). Transferring the assets resulted in a gain of $600K. HCAR also wrote off the goodwill associated with Westwood.
HCAR named along with 1,667 others in a class action suit for charging too much for registration etc. Doesn't surprise me.
Restatement needed for Q2, just added a breakdown of floor plan notes payable into trade and non-trade components and moved cash flow of non-trade portion as financing and not operations.
Warranties: Balance at the start of the year was $208K. $890K added. $800K deducted.
Stock is at $1.50 ask. The drop in revenues is largely due to the loss of the Westwood dealership... and it ain't coming back. The stock is now worth less, perhaps $1.20.
You might ask him how he did it. I have no idea, myself.