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Monday, December 11, 2006

China Education Alliance (CEDA) combined links

China Education Alliance is in Harbin, China. They provide online materials for middle and high school students, as well as having a training center in Harbin. They're also working on vocational education. Their market right now is local to the Harbin area, but they plan to expand into other parts of the Heilongjiang province and perhaps elsewhere in China.

Right now, this is a small investment. The CEO is the controlling shareholder, which makes me nervous. Also, much of the business is fairly new.

sec, chart, website (in Chinese)

2004 10-K (old post)
2005 10K
Q3 2006
English website
e-Fang auditors
other SEC filings
looking at New Oriental Education (EDU), Dec 16, 2006
press releases, Jan 8, 2007
2006 10K with gigantic SG&A increase, April 10, 2007
Q1 2007, May 19, 2007
Q2 2007, August 14, 2007
sold about half, Oct 11, 2007

interesting Harbin satellite photo from NASA
the amazing Harbin snow and ice festival


I read your stuff and it is very thoughtful. Do you actually ever make any money investing? I have monitored your trades and you just seem to never make any money.
My long term average is 24%. Last year I did very well. Much of that was realized when I sold CXTI. The majority of the rest is currently in Strathmore Minerals (my cost basis is $1.80 at this point with a 154% gain). I made about 20% on YHGG, but I consider that a mistake. I'm up over 42% on BKBO. CEDA is down some and CFRI is down quite a bit, especially today. I bailed out of EPLN, LVWD, and some others with roughly break even results. But overall I currently have a 51% unrealized gain. As of this morning, I was up 11% for the year. After the drop in CFRI today, that's now down to 8% (CFRI was partly offset by today's gain in Strathmore, CVU, and BKBO).

If it weren't for CXTI and Strathmore, my results for the last 2 years would be lousy.

Thanks again for another comprehensive analysis and interesting idea. Have you looked into the warrants to see if they are trading? I haven't been able to track them down.

Anyhow, I'm thinking warrants may be better than holding the stock, as this looks like a binary play (its a scam and its worth nothing, or its real and growing and will be worth several times what it is now). Seems like a better risk/reward than the common. Anyhow, curious to hear your thoughts.

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