Monday, December 26, 2005
True Religion (TRLG) high fashion jeans
How about a $286.00 pair of jeans? or maybe a $359.00 pair of corduroys?
...and God said, Let there be supermodels
True Religion brand jeans, TRLG (sec, website), high fashion jeans and other apparel. They sell to upscale department stores like Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom, also lots of boutique stores. Also in Japan, UK, and Ireland.
They factored some receivables. Balance sheet is ok. 2004 revenues were 10 times more than 2003. High margins. Earned 20 cents per diluted share in 2004. Earned 33 cents per diluted share in Q3 2005, but the share count is going up fast. Only about half the earnings show up in cash flow. More factoring of receivables.
Fast forward to Q3 2005: There's now a huge amount of cash on the balance sheet. Receivables and inventories are up. Q3 revenues are 5 times prior year. Same high margins.
They moved to NASDAQ. The stock price is $16.29. The stock has wide visibility at this point. This just seems like too much of a fad for me. I invested in Hot Topic years ago because it was obvious they were cheap, because they had a durable brand, because they had a superb marketing machine, and they were faster than anyone else at getting new ideas into the stores.
Right now, as far as I can tell, this jeans business is a one-trick fashion pony. They might be more than that, I have no idea.
...and there must be something wrong with their website: the jean sizes only go up to 27. Oh wait, no, the men's sizes go all the way up to 38.
worth following, if only for the photos
...and God said, Let there be supermodelsTrue Religion brand jeans, TRLG (sec, website), high fashion jeans and other apparel. They sell to upscale department stores like Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom, also lots of boutique stores. Also in Japan, UK, and Ireland.
They factored some receivables. Balance sheet is ok. 2004 revenues were 10 times more than 2003. High margins. Earned 20 cents per diluted share in 2004. Earned 33 cents per diluted share in Q3 2005, but the share count is going up fast. Only about half the earnings show up in cash flow. More factoring of receivables.
Fast forward to Q3 2005: There's now a huge amount of cash on the balance sheet. Receivables and inventories are up. Q3 revenues are 5 times prior year. Same high margins.
They moved to NASDAQ. The stock price is $16.29. The stock has wide visibility at this point. This just seems like too much of a fad for me. I invested in Hot Topic years ago because it was obvious they were cheap, because they had a durable brand, because they had a superb marketing machine, and they were faster than anyone else at getting new ideas into the stores.
Right now, as far as I can tell, this jeans business is a one-trick fashion pony. They might be more than that, I have no idea.
...and there must be something wrong with their website: the jean sizes only go up to 27. Oh wait, no, the men's sizes go all the way up to 38.
worth following, if only for the photos
// posted by Bruce @ 4:06 PM 
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