Wednesday, November 09, 2005
thoughts on a Wednesday morning
I bought a bunch of CXTI today when the price dropped below a dollar. My lowest price was 85 cents.I sold a little bit on Monday and about 1/3 on Tuesday.
UPDATE: November 1, 2005
I bought even more CXTI, but not enough... guilty of a psychological irrationality called "anchoring" where you get an anchor point in your mind and you tend to adjust an insufficient amount from it. If you started from scratch, you'd pick a much different number. If I hadn't already owned shares of CXTI and if I had just discovered it after it dropped from $2.20 to 85 cents, then I would dive in head-first. As it is, I realize now that I'm still under-invested. The stock is selling for less than one-seventh of full value and it's only about a 2/3 investment for me right now! What the hell am I thinking? The problem is that I need to sell other stuff in order to buy CXTI, so it's a tough decision. It's too easy to just leave it alone....
UPDATE: Nov 2, 2005
I bought even more today, but it's still not a full investment. I just don't have anything to sell. I dumped some Strathmore to buy today's lot. I'm afraid to dump CVU or LVWD because I hate to be overinvested in China. No way am I selling ETLT. YaSheng is also extremely good. So I'm pretty much fully invested at this point. I'd be willing to shift from CVU or Strathmore into some other better non-Chinese investment....
I roll up my sleeve to reveal several text-based tattoos on my arm.
FACT: STOCK IS WORTH NPV OF FCF
Valueclick. Now that was an investment. It was in the depths of the dot-com bust and Internet advertisers were shunned like the bird flu. Valueclick had just reached break-even while steadily improving. They sold for $2.00 while they had a net cash liquidation value of $2.36. I bought tons of it. But I was too cautious in the valuation, not taking into account the quality of the business and especially the inevitable improvement of the market. I figured full price was $4.40 and I sold it all for just under that. It's selling now for $19.03. I was impatient to realize my gains and I underestimated the business and the market.
Can I remember Valueclick? Will it fade into lost memory like everything else? You see, I have this condition. I can't remember a damn thing. So I've learned to write it down. Keep a blog. Follow certain routines....
UPDATE: Now I sorta wish I had dumped even more of LVWD and CVU. Both reported crappy results today.