Sunday, May 28, 2006
Checking back with Mr. Market: 1
Let's see how stock prices have done on companies I looked at over the past year.
What I want to look for here are any large disconnects between what the market has done in the last year and my views of these companies. I want to look for cases of large gains or losses and see if (considering the news and financial statements, if needed) they clearly disprove anything I might have written.
b-Fast Corp BFTC not enough volume to say anything
Lift-A-Loft LIAL no info
Lincoln Logs LLOG changed to LCLG, stock is now... um... $230. 1-for-500 reverse merger to drop the shareholders of record to less than 300 so they could go dark, which they did in Sept 2006. They were still losing money in the last readable financial statements.
Balistic Recovery Systems BRSI down about 50% WHY? I had noted here that they earned a penny in Q2 05, but cash flow was terrible. R&D increased. Increased pricing pressure. The quarter ended Mar 31, 2006 was lousy. Revenues were up, but not as much as R&D (as I had noted before) and SG&A. They had operating losses and interest expense increased (as we might expect). Cash flow from operations was hurt by inventory increases. This is not very surprising.
Bank of Salem, Oregon BSOG about the same ($17).
Bay National Corporation BANI (now BAYN) I liked this almost as much as Bank of the James. Stock went from $17.50 to around $19.
River City Bank RCBK Stock went from around $11 to around $12.50
Commonwealth National Bank, was CWEA, now CNB Financial CFNA stock is now $13.50, was around $12 (did a one-for-one stock trade)
Wintrust Financial WTFC stock has been all over the place. Was around $50. Went as high as $59.64 and as low as $46.74, is now about the same at $51.32. They had a big drop in April 2006.
Pacific International Bank The ask was $17 when I looked at them and their website now says the bid is $15.50.
BGI Inc BGII The stock was at 40 cents. The last sale was at 80 cents. Two-bagger! WHY? I had ruled them out because they went dark and no longer have audited results. But otherwise, I was quite positive about the company when I last looked at them in Feb 2006. They announced 188% increase in net income for Q1 (3 cents per undiluted share). Their results for 2005 were kickass (9 cents per diluted share).
Billy Martin's USA BLYM I had strong negative view of BLYM and the stock is now down about 90% from the half-cent it was selling for when I looked at it. The market ended up agreeing with me.
Amen Properties AMEN I had viewed the company as solid years ago, last year I checked back and was not interested at $6.35 per share. While the stock went up to $8.40, it's now down to $5.33. Nothing surprising there.
Blue Valley Bank Corp BVBC Stock was at $27. I figured it was worth $22. The bid/ask is now $29.10/$32.00. Nothing surprising there.
BNS Holding BNSIA Was liqudating. Stock is now around $5.60 (was $6.70). No dividends paid. Nothing surprising there.
Bogen Communications International BOGN I figured it was worth $6.50 and selling for $5.05. It's now selling for $7.10, climbing fairly steadily. Nothing surprising there.
Bonal Technologies BONL They were selling for less than 50 cents with a 14 cent profit (but I found their patent expiring soon). So it didn't surprise me all that much when they declared a 4 cent dividend and the stock went to 90 cents. The last sale was $1.22. Here's their 2005 annual report with audited results, but where's 2006? At this point (when considering the Oct 2005 results), I still don't know what will happen when the patent expires. It could be that they simply have a great deal of expertise and trade secrets to retain a moat. I don't know. And that's the key.
BonusAmerica revisited here BAWC The stock has wobbled around but gone nowhere. Nothing surprising there.
Bowlin Travel Centers BWTL Stock was at $1.80 when I first looked at it. It's now $1.80/$2.00. I noted that they consistently did about 10 cents a share in earnings, so the current price is not the least bit surprising.
BrandPartners Group I noted alleged fraud here BPTR The stock has dropped from around 80 cents to around 25 cents. In Q1 2006, the margins had gone to hell, they started losing money, and started looking pretty lousy. This was a correct call, in my opinion.
Broadleaf Capital Partners BDLF I had commented on how horrible their balance sheet was. I had said the stock was selling for 10 cents, but it was really 1 cent. Today it's about the same. That's actually surprising. Let's check out their SEC filings. Oops, nothing since 2004. The market cap is around $70K, which might be the value of a messy shell company, I don't know.
Bulldog Technologies BLLD Stock was trading for well over a dollar at the time. It's been plunging and now at 62 cents on the ask. I last looked at them on Jan 21, 2006. They were late in SEC filing for no good reason. More recently, a director resigned, The Port of Ensenada, Mexico (Baja, just south of Tijiuana) identified Bulldog for container security as Ensenada ramps up for cargo traffic. Another Mexican port is also looking at Bulldog. Bulldog's 10-Q for Feb 28, 2006 shows a weak balance sheet (but not as weak as it looks). Holy cow, they actually have revenue now. $80 of sales (with $25K gross profit) vs SG&A of $1.4 million. They've got a deep hole to climb out of. However, this could possibly be successful in the long run. 24 million shares and who know what sort of options and warrants... I see 4.3 million warrants. 2.1 million options. It looks like there's also around 4 million convertable notes (converted at $1 per share) plus 1 option each, so it looks like 8 million shares diluted (might be only 5), but I'm not sure. So given the current 25 million shares and the balance sheet and horrible situation, I'd assume total dilution of about 40 million shares if the company starts to be successful (doesn't matter if it's not, since "nuthin from nuthin leaves nuthin"). I had noted Mexico as a big possibility back in January (above). However, I don't know what this company is worth. They need about $20 million in revenues per year to break even. It's a race against time for BLLD to ramp up revenues before they go under and/or get diluted into dishwater. Overall, I'm not even slightly surprised how it's turned out so far.
Burnham Holdings BURCA The stock has dropped from around $25 to $19.30 last sale. I had noted that sales took a hit in Q1 2005, but earnings averaged around $2.20/share with $1.12 dividends. This Q1 2006, they had a loss, which was made worse due to the ongoing startup costs of new manufacturing initiatives. They made money in the year 2005, I guess that Q3 wasn't too bad. I guess the point is that housing is slowing down and sales of boilers, furnaces, radiators, air conditioning systems, etc. are going to drop. But these guys serve industial and commercial markets, too. I'd guess the stock is probably somewhat cheap right now, however... you can tell the big problem by the fact that book value is greater than the market cap: low return on assets. That means it's capital intensive. And beware of those types of companies in times of inflation. Nothing surprising since I looked at it.
Live World LVWD it's gone nowhere
BakBone Software BKBO about the same
Bank of the James BOJF I liked this one so much I used it as a yardstick for other banks. The stock has gone from $14 to $21.
Seacoast Bank SCCB
The stock has gone down from around $11.50 to around $10.10
[left off with Butler National Corp, 7/16/05]
What I want to look for here are any large disconnects between what the market has done in the last year and my views of these companies. I want to look for cases of large gains or losses and see if (considering the news and financial statements, if needed) they clearly disprove anything I might have written.
C O M P A N I E S - I - R E J E C T E D
b-Fast Corp BFTC not enough volume to say anything
Lift-A-Loft LIAL no info
Lincoln Logs LLOG changed to LCLG, stock is now... um... $230. 1-for-500 reverse merger to drop the shareholders of record to less than 300 so they could go dark, which they did in Sept 2006. They were still losing money in the last readable financial statements.
Balistic Recovery Systems BRSI down about 50% WHY? I had noted here that they earned a penny in Q2 05, but cash flow was terrible. R&D increased. Increased pricing pressure. The quarter ended Mar 31, 2006 was lousy. Revenues were up, but not as much as R&D (as I had noted before) and SG&A. They had operating losses and interest expense increased (as we might expect). Cash flow from operations was hurt by inventory increases. This is not very surprising.
Bank of Salem, Oregon BSOG about the same ($17).
Bay National Corporation BANI (now BAYN) I liked this almost as much as Bank of the James. Stock went from $17.50 to around $19.
River City Bank RCBK Stock went from around $11 to around $12.50
Commonwealth National Bank, was CWEA, now CNB Financial CFNA stock is now $13.50, was around $12 (did a one-for-one stock trade)
Wintrust Financial WTFC stock has been all over the place. Was around $50. Went as high as $59.64 and as low as $46.74, is now about the same at $51.32. They had a big drop in April 2006.
Pacific International Bank The ask was $17 when I looked at them and their website now says the bid is $15.50.
BGI Inc BGII The stock was at 40 cents. The last sale was at 80 cents. Two-bagger! WHY? I had ruled them out because they went dark and no longer have audited results. But otherwise, I was quite positive about the company when I last looked at them in Feb 2006. They announced 188% increase in net income for Q1 (3 cents per undiluted share). Their results for 2005 were kickass (9 cents per diluted share).
Billy Martin's USA BLYM I had strong negative view of BLYM and the stock is now down about 90% from the half-cent it was selling for when I looked at it. The market ended up agreeing with me.
Amen Properties AMEN I had viewed the company as solid years ago, last year I checked back and was not interested at $6.35 per share. While the stock went up to $8.40, it's now down to $5.33. Nothing surprising there.
Blue Valley Bank Corp BVBC Stock was at $27. I figured it was worth $22. The bid/ask is now $29.10/$32.00. Nothing surprising there.
BNS Holding BNSIA Was liqudating. Stock is now around $5.60 (was $6.70). No dividends paid. Nothing surprising there.
Bogen Communications International BOGN I figured it was worth $6.50 and selling for $5.05. It's now selling for $7.10, climbing fairly steadily. Nothing surprising there.
Bonal Technologies BONL They were selling for less than 50 cents with a 14 cent profit (but I found their patent expiring soon). So it didn't surprise me all that much when they declared a 4 cent dividend and the stock went to 90 cents. The last sale was $1.22. Here's their 2005 annual report with audited results, but where's 2006? At this point (when considering the Oct 2005 results), I still don't know what will happen when the patent expires. It could be that they simply have a great deal of expertise and trade secrets to retain a moat. I don't know. And that's the key.
BonusAmerica revisited here BAWC The stock has wobbled around but gone nowhere. Nothing surprising there.
Bowlin Travel Centers BWTL Stock was at $1.80 when I first looked at it. It's now $1.80/$2.00. I noted that they consistently did about 10 cents a share in earnings, so the current price is not the least bit surprising.
BrandPartners Group I noted alleged fraud here BPTR The stock has dropped from around 80 cents to around 25 cents. In Q1 2006, the margins had gone to hell, they started losing money, and started looking pretty lousy. This was a correct call, in my opinion.
Broadleaf Capital Partners BDLF I had commented on how horrible their balance sheet was. I had said the stock was selling for 10 cents, but it was really 1 cent. Today it's about the same. That's actually surprising. Let's check out their SEC filings. Oops, nothing since 2004. The market cap is around $70K, which might be the value of a messy shell company, I don't know.
Bulldog Technologies BLLD Stock was trading for well over a dollar at the time. It's been plunging and now at 62 cents on the ask. I last looked at them on Jan 21, 2006. They were late in SEC filing for no good reason. More recently, a director resigned, The Port of Ensenada, Mexico (Baja, just south of Tijiuana) identified Bulldog for container security as Ensenada ramps up for cargo traffic. Another Mexican port is also looking at Bulldog. Bulldog's 10-Q for Feb 28, 2006 shows a weak balance sheet (but not as weak as it looks). Holy cow, they actually have revenue now. $80 of sales (with $25K gross profit) vs SG&A of $1.4 million. They've got a deep hole to climb out of. However, this could possibly be successful in the long run. 24 million shares and who know what sort of options and warrants... I see 4.3 million warrants. 2.1 million options. It looks like there's also around 4 million convertable notes (converted at $1 per share) plus 1 option each, so it looks like 8 million shares diluted (might be only 5), but I'm not sure. So given the current 25 million shares and the balance sheet and horrible situation, I'd assume total dilution of about 40 million shares if the company starts to be successful (doesn't matter if it's not, since "nuthin from nuthin leaves nuthin"). I had noted Mexico as a big possibility back in January (above). However, I don't know what this company is worth. They need about $20 million in revenues per year to break even. It's a race against time for BLLD to ramp up revenues before they go under and/or get diluted into dishwater. Overall, I'm not even slightly surprised how it's turned out so far.
Burnham Holdings BURCA The stock has dropped from around $25 to $19.30 last sale. I had noted that sales took a hit in Q1 2005, but earnings averaged around $2.20/share with $1.12 dividends. This Q1 2006, they had a loss, which was made worse due to the ongoing startup costs of new manufacturing initiatives. They made money in the year 2005, I guess that Q3 wasn't too bad. I guess the point is that housing is slowing down and sales of boilers, furnaces, radiators, air conditioning systems, etc. are going to drop. But these guys serve industial and commercial markets, too. I'd guess the stock is probably somewhat cheap right now, however... you can tell the big problem by the fact that book value is greater than the market cap: low return on assets. That means it's capital intensive. And beware of those types of companies in times of inflation. Nothing surprising since I looked at it.
T E M P O R A R Y - I N V E S T M E N T S
Live World LVWD it's gone nowhere
BakBone Software BKBO about the same
Bank of the James BOJF I liked this one so much I used it as a yardstick for other banks. The stock has gone from $14 to $21.
Seacoast Bank SCCB
The stock has gone down from around $11.50 to around $10.10
[left off with Butler National Corp, 7/16/05]
// posted by Bruce @ 2:56 PM 
