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Monday, October 10, 2005

Revisiting Companies 2

Solitron Devices (SODI)
SODI popped. It was at about $1.50 and went up as high as $3, currently $2.20. No news, except dropping their auditors.
Obviously still not interested

American Dairy (ADY)
This was selling for $6.75 and I didn't trust it. It went up to $8 and it's down to $7.80. Q2 results were good. Net income was 18 cents diluted. But cash flow was terrible due to a huge deferred income larger than net income.

They announced Q3 guidance. Sales would be about the same, maybe less than Q2. Diluted income about the same as Q2.

And of course they left the OTC BB, so they're legit now.
Not interested

Big Apple Bagels (BABB)
I figured they're worth about a dollar a share, which was the stock price. Now $1.26.

They announced results for Q3. Revenues down from prior year. 2 cents income vs 4 last year. They paid dividends as usual plus a special 6 cent dividend.
Not interested

New York Health Care (BACL)
Wow, actual revenue.
Not interested

Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC)
These guys are competitors to NICK. They were difficult for me to understand. Fortunately, there was a Q&A 8-K issued which has some stuff in it.

A lot more dealers are paying the fee in 2005 than 2004, which is good.

The issue about loaning to dealers vs consumers went to the SEC with at least no big problems, as far as I can tell.

No other new information. I had figured free cash flow to be about $1 per share. The stock price is now $14.75
Not interested

China BAK Battery (CBBT)
On Aug 10, it didn't seem cheap. The stock is about the same price. They filed a 10-Q and also did a placement.

The balance sheet sure did change. Current assets moved up the sheet. Total assets increased 30%. Equity jumped, obviously added capital (8.6 million new shares of contributed capital vs an original 32 million)

Revenues way up, gross profit up. 8 cents a share vs 5. Cash flow is only half of net income, due to AR.
Not cheap enough

Caprius (CAPS)
This was the medical waster neutralizer product. They had terrible P&L. But a new quarterly report is out.

Balance sheet is pretty good. Revenues are actually lower!
Not interested

Triangle Multi Media (QBID)
The Gay Channel or whatever. Apparently, they're working on audited results. Lots of glorious percentage increases mentioned, but 100% gain from almost nothing is still almost nothing. They claim that they're worth 10 times more than their market cap.
Subscribers -- Q Television's subscriber base is currently twenty-two thousand, and its expected subscriber growth rate going forward is twenty-five percent per month.
They're serving up some star power for brunch, apparently. If you asked me, they're trying to be a bit too in-your-face gay.

They landed an account in Chicago, which is good.

The stock is actually down from when I looked at it before, if that's even possible. 10 shares per penny. Of course they have billions and billions of shares, which is... um... silly.
Maybe some interest

China Cable (CCCI)
They issued a 10-Q after I looked at them.
They still have a 1-to-10 current ratio. And revenues are only up about 13% or so over last year. Operational loss is about 10% of revenues. Net loss is about 4 times more.
Not interested

C-Chip Technologies (MANS)
Let's see if they could get any worse.
Just more mousetrap stuff.
Not interested

China Digital Media (CDGT)
This was the cable operator whose CEO is into paintball. They had earned 2 cents in Q2 and the stock was at $2.50. Well, the stock is down to $1.55, which is good.

They launched an IP based set-top box. Very interesting. They also added 35 TV channels for Nanhai. The annual subscription rate is $15 to $74.

Remember that TV is very big in China, even more than the US. UPDATE: On a per-capita basis, they're low with about 300 tv sets per thousand people, but the total market is huge, especially in the cities where cable is.
Maybe some interest

China Education Alliance
No news whatsoever. The stock price is 35 cents (was 32 cents). I had been suspicous before and nothing's changed.
Not Interested

China Evergreen (CEEC)
The stock has stayed about where it was since the 40% one-day gain. The ask is now 28.5 cents.

On Sept 14, 2005, they announced completion of a $4.8 million placement. Shares at 15 cents and a 5-year warrant for the same number of shares at 20 cents. The central government has targeted a 90% wastewater treatment rate by 2030 (generally around 25% in 2002). Most of the new plants will be BOT (build, operate, transfer), contract term is usually 20-30 years, gov owns the land, capital return period is 5-6 years. You figure contracts are worth 3-4 times the invested capital. At 30 cents, you'd be buying in at more than 2x incremental book value (i.e. what the company is paying for incremental capital). If you take Buffett's rough gauge that options are worth about 1/3 the strike price (these have 5 year expiration vs typical 10 year) and you're paying 3 times as much as those in the placement. I'm thinking it's probably priced about right, especially since I wasn't all that thrilled with the company anyway.
Maybe some interest at the right price

COR Equity Management (CEQH)
Still a self-parody.

China Finance Online (CHFI)
I was probably too concerned about competition and inevitable winners. This company is in the game early and thus has an advantage.

The stock is roughly where it was, at 40 cents.

The company sold all its shares of CHID at a 5% discount from the market. No other news. The Shanghai stock market seems to be doing OK, although it dropped a bit since mid-September. The main index is about the same as it was when I looked at the stock the first time.

China Energy & Carbon Black Holdings (CHEY)
Nothing new from them after making the world's stupidest acquisition.

Avalon Correctional Services (CITY)
Nothing since February. Stock is largely unchanged.

and good old Malibu Cola, Calcol (CLCL)
Nothing new.

I'm trying to go thru the nanocaps from the bottom up in market cap.
The raisins are in parts per billion compared to the turds.
I'm a little intrigued by COWP--own some stockyards in the midwest--there may be some real estate value there. On the other hand, some of their money is in modern art, and there is a big related party loan at 10% interest.
No low hanging fruit, here.
BTW, always enjoy your fool posts, deli.

COWP in stockyards? That's funny, COWPie. You know, as an investment I missed that one. I didn't see that they had started making money during 2005. But looking closer, you can see it's all due to big real estate gains.

Stockyards are a notoriously bad area of business, very low margins. I read an interesting article about the margins on a single cow. Really terrible stuff, and the animal treatment is really bad.

COWPie would appear to have a P/E far less than 1, but it's just a temporary thing. Interesting company, though!

As far as methods go, I have my own proprietary techniques (which got me banned for a while from the Pink Sheets website).
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