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Thursday, December 30, 2010

The Year 2010

There's slightly more than 1 trading day before the end of 2010.  It was a very memorable year: the best of years, the worst of years. A lot of good things happened and a lot of bad things happened.

It seems like the only thing that hasn't changed dramatically are the stocks that I've been holding onto.  But their prices have changed dramatically.

NICK: from $7 to $10
CVU: from $6 to $14 (it's not all that far from full value, from what I can tell)
CCJ: from $32 to $20 to $40
Strathmore: from 65 cents to $1.20
Fission Energy: from 20 cents to 80 cents
Berkshire Hathaway: from  $66 to $80
and there's the latest firecracker, CFRI: from 10 cents to 60 cents
It was only half that price around Thanksgiving.

Unfortunately, I had sold a lot of CFRI when it looked like they might not survive (hell, it's probably still a crap shoot).  Luckily I had trouble even finding buyers, so I was stuck with quite a bit.  I sold some of that today.

The uranium stocks are difficult to gauge in terms of value.  The spot price of uranium is finally climbing back again.  A lot of factors point to a much higher value: the overprinting of just about all paper money, the acceleration of nuclear reactor building (esp in China), and the painfully slow unfolding of the demand/supply situation.  I think Fission in under everyone's radar.  I bought more a while back, but I know I'll regret not buying enough.  I might bail out of Cameco at $45 and put maybe 1/4 of that into somewhere else in uranium, like Fission.

Something's definitely going on with CFRI.

This makes two years in a row of outrageously high returns.  But even then, I still haven't gotten back up to the high water mark of early 2007.  2008 was that bad.

I have a vague sense of dread for 2011 and I'm thinking about increasing my cash percentage by some.  But even cash isn't safe.  Nowhere to run.  Nowhere to hide.

UPDATE Dec 31, 2010:
Let's just take a quick comparison look at Hathor Exploration vs Fission Energy.
Hathor market cap: about US$350 million
Fission market cap: about US$93 million
I haven't done a detailed comparison of Hathor's roughrider uranium project vs Fission's Waterbury Lake project, but they're both massive (extremely high concentrations at reasonably shallow depth).  Hathor's is probably more valuable and further along.  So the two stock prices might be rational between each other.  I worry about the Cigar Lake possibilities.

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