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Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Conforce International (CFRI) update

CFRI (combined links) announced an update on the field trials. From now until September, CFRI expects 900 twenty-foot equivalent containers to be released into circulation for final testing. Actually they said "will continue to be released". Not sure if that means 900 more or 900 total. I'd assume 900 total. Either way, I like the number.
"The significant size of the trial orders we have received to-date has surpassed our initial expectations. We are extremely pleased to see the interest in our product at such high levels. We consider the opportunity to have EKO-FLOR evaluated by major shipping lines as a true validation of the product...."
Ok, so the history now is that EKO-FLOR was introduced in Dec 2006, 2007 was spent fixing it based on customer feedback. It's now "EKO-FLOR cs", with a 10% weight advantage over plywood, not to mention the other advantages.

I guess I'm surprised that they haven't needed to raise any additional cash yet. Perhaps there will be an announcement before too long. I just don't see how they can ramp up with so little cash and cash flow. I would expect significant dilution, although I'd be happy without it.
...the Company has worked closely with numerous shipping lines and manufacturers in an effort to secure the above-mentioned trial orders followed by significant volume commitments for full-scale production in 2009.


I've spent many years in new product development and I know that it takes forever to get from a viable prototype to significant revenue. The delays with CFRI don't surprise me in the least. There may be additional delays. Given CFRI's experience in the industry, I suspect a total outsider like BASF would experience even longer delays in fully understanding and meeting customer requirements.

Having 900 TEUs in field trials is a good sign. Customers are serious about the product.

The value of success with CFRI is big enough that waiting an extra year or two doesn't change things.

UPDATE Wed May 28, 2008:
CFRI just announced they got a letter of intent from a US supplier to the US military for a multi-year contract for a minimum of 10,000 special container floors. Definitive agreement expected in July. Deployment starts in Sept 2008.

If this goes through, I suspect it will help bring in other customers.

Thank you for your view. According to the company they originally expected to charge $500 per twenty-foot container floor installed. So 900 in testing will still bring in some decent money. I would like to see an initial order of a complete ship (10000) containers. What do you think is a good number for an order to effect the share price?
Unfortunately, a 900 TEU order would initially put a strain on cash flow, probably an up-front $250K cost.

10K containers would only result in 4 cents of revenue per share. A million containers would probably kick the price a bit.

I thought the jpeg picture was a worthy comment.
What happened to this blog? No posts since May with all of this going on?!

Things look pretty awful for NICK/uranium, but hopefully some short term headwinds didn't knock this blog out of the cyberworld...
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